LAHORE: Pakistan’s embattled President Asif Zardari is extremely worried as the political fallouts of the Sharif brothers’ disqualification by the Supreme Court and the subsequent imposition of the governor’s rule in the largest province of Punjab have turned out to be far more negative than what the widower of Benazir Bhutto had thought of.
Instead of giving the PML-N a chance to elect a new chief minister following the disqualification of Shehbaz Sharif by the Musharraf-appointed Supreme Court judges, President Zardari had invoked the Governor’s rule in Punjab last week. As the PPP game plan in Punjab unfolds there are more questions than answers. It appears that the Supreme Court verdict and the subsequent imposition of the governor’s rule in Punjab were all pre-planned by the presidency in collusion with the judiciary in a bid to create a fait accompli that would tempt the PML-Q (founder by Musharraf) to hitch its fortunes to the PPP and allow the two parties to shut the Sharif-led PML-N out of power in Punjab.
By imposing the governor’s rule and altering the political ground in Punjab, the presidency may have hoped that the PML-Q would quickly fall in line behind it. But that has not happened so far despite Zardari’s best efforts, primarily because of the internal rift within the PML-Q over the issue of joining hands with the PPP. Furthermore, the presidency appears to have miscalculated on two other counts. First, the ferociousness of the PML-N’s response may have taken Zardari by surprise. The disqualified Sharif brothers have launched fierce attacks against President Zardari and threatened agitation on the streets of Punjab that may spin out of control. Second, some members of the ruling coalition in Islamabad have expressed dismay at the turn of events in Punjab and not thrown their support behind the PPP.
Under these circumstances, it seems that President Zardari, who is still holding the chairmanship of the PPP, has ended up risking not only his own office, but also the survival of the whole political dispensation in the wake of the massive protest movement across Pakistan. Analysts say after having miscalculated the reaction of the N-League and its top leadership, civil society, media and even some of his own allies, Asif Zardari has reduced himself as the main villain for messing up the political situation where even his party leaders including the Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani are shying away from defending his action. As Zardari is already been compared by the Sharifs with General Musharraf due to his autocratic actions, the PPP has touched such lows that the most noticeable defence of the president after the imposition of governor’s rule is coming from Musharraf’s political remnants.
Therefore, Zardari is really upset and now wants a patch-up with Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N. Sources in the Presidency say Zardari desires a rapprochement with Nawaz-League after probably realising that the things are getting out of his control but maybe is not aware of the fact that he is no more trusted by his estranged “brother” and his party. Although Zardari has already asked some of his allies and trusted friends to help defuse the tension between the two, the fact remains that the damage has already been done. Today neither President Zardari nor the horses — he had betted on — are sure whether the entire PML-Q MPAs including those representing forward bloc are ready to join the PPP to realise the dream of making the PPP government in Punjab after a lapse of over long 30 years.
The political circles in Islamabad do not rule out the possibility of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) finally joining hands with the Sharif-led PML to form the new Punjab government which can create a political turmoil at the Centre where the gap between numbers of the PPP and the PML-N in the National Assembly is much lesser than what exists in the Punjab Assembly. The Q-League, having a key role in the present circumstances, can strengthen the N-League for a tit-for-tat reply. “Punjab’s fallout can be at the Centre in case the prevailing situation continues as was witnessed in the past,” what political circles believe while referring to examples and parliamentary numbers game in both the National and Punjab Assemblies.
As nothing can be ruled out in Pakistan politics, there is a difference of 33 seats in the National Assembly and 63 in the Punjab Assembly between the official strength of the PPP and the PML-N which had jointly formed the federal government in Islamabad after the 2008 general elections. With president at the Centre and governor in the Punjab, the PPP and the PML-N have already shown their majority in the National and provincial assemblies still leaving a room for a countdown. The tilt of the smaller parties cannot be ruled out towards majority seat holders in the National Assembly as they did in case of the PPP that was 37 seats short of achieving 171 required votes for the electing the speaker and the prime minister after the general elections
The total strength of the PML-N and the PML-Q in the National Assembly stands at 145, requiring another 26 members’ support to table a no-confidence motion against the speaker or ask leader of the house to obtain a vote of confidence in the National Assembly. Analysts believe this gap can be filled by the parties opposing the Supreme Court verdict in Sharif brothers’ case and the imposition of the governor’s rule in the Punjab in case the existing circumstances prolong. Going by the numbers, the PPP’s official strength is 124, the PML-N 91, the PML-Q 54, the MQM 25, the ANP 13, the JUI-F 7, the PML-F 5, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) 11 and one each of the BNP-A, the PPP-S and the NPP in the National Assembly. A few are independents as two seats, NA-123 and NA-42, are vacant.
Likewise in the Punjab, the PML-N have 170 MPAs, the PPP 107, the PML-Q 84, the JUI-F 2, the PML-F 3 and four are independents. The PPP is behind 63 seats from the PML-N and 180 members behind majority in that province. The PML-N is behind 80 seats to achieve a majority in the National Assembly as masters of political hobnobbing are sitting in different factions of the leagues. As things stand, as against Zardari and his party, the Sharifs have though lost Punjab, they have won the sympathies of the masses and attained new heights of popularity. Morally positioned at a high pedestal, Nawaz Sharif and Shehbaz Sharif are playing smart politics, have chosen President Zardari for their scathing criticism and making it sure that the president is isolated from the PPP while Benazir Bhutto is treated with utmost respect. Therefore, the next few days and weeks would be keenly watched, as the political situation in Pakistan is ripe for some major surprises.
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