Shaffaf Exclusive
As Lebanon sways between the prospect of peace with Israel and threats of civil conflict, emotions are running high for both proponents and opponents of this process. A situation not unlike the 1982-83 failed attempt at Peace of what was known as the May 17 agreement.
The geopolitics have changed markedly yet one constant factor remained. Lebanon is still viewed by most regional powers as a country that should not forge an independent Peace agreement and should therefore only approach any peace deal as part of consortium including Iran and Arab nations that have so far not signed a peace deal with Israel.
The logic for Iran and it’s proxy Hizballah to be part of this push back is common knowledge and almost part of our daily discourse, less so is the position of some Arab countries, Saudi Arabia and Egypt notably that seem to want Lebanon to hold off on any peace agreement in what appears to be an attempt to have it part of a larger agreement including a two state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. The marketed reasons are the avoidance of civil war but the real reasons are entirely different and have to do with the interests of each country separately.
Historically, regional countries have either pressured or incentivized Lebanon to allow militant actors to operate on it’ssoil and represent a direct threat to Israel. The PLO in 1968 and Hizballah in the 1990’s and until this day. The approach has resulted in a devastating civil war that cost Lebanon dearly; socially, politically, and economically. It resulted in a Syrian occupation that lasted close to 20 years and three wars with Israel since then.
The themes for political indecision are always the same, fear of social unrest and civil conflict, in fact History would rebut that claim. Not exploring and pursuing a peace agreement seriously and within the confines of a pure Lebanese agenda is precisely what triggered the civil war and then propagated it for many years.
Now let us consider the current political climate with honesty and a national agenda. I am not talking about the common political lexicon, which has been exhausted but rather what really lies in the hearts of the different Lebanese religious communities. Let us start with Christians that I believe overwhelmingly support a peace deal albeit without receding an inch of Land, that being the legacy of Bachir Gemayel. The Druze and despite the position of Walid Jumblatt are also in favor of a peace deal. The Shiites want a peace deal as well only they want to broker it themselves in order to maintain their existing advantages and also achieve further political gains.
As for the Sunni community, I think they also support a peace agreement but are being deliberately muted by a consorted barrage of talking heads that belong to a previous era and are pushing the narrative of a collective Arab agreement, which should include a two state solution for the Palestinians.
Lebanon paid a heavy price for almost 75 years and the Sunni community in particular for supporting the Palestinian cause. And when the Palestinians wanted to do a deal for themselves in Madrid and Oslo, they went ahead with no concern to Lebanon and despite what it had suffered for its support for Palestinian refugees and, later on, armed resistance.
Today there is an attempt to paint the Sunni community as a supporter of such a collective Arab approach, I believe that this is fundamentally untrue and what the community wants right now is a peace deal that reclaims our land and ends the conflict with Israel forever. We have paid very dearly for futile conflicts that brought us nothing but destruction and grief.
I therefore want to encourage President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam to not waver and stay the course this time. Legitimacy comes from the Lebanese that have suffered enough and no place else, the public is behind them, and if they don’t believe me then let us call for early elections and position it as a referendum on Peace for Lebanon or Peace for everyone else. The result is clear to me at least.
*Khaled Zeidan is a businessman.