LAHORE: As the political crisis in Pakistan has touched new heights in the wake of the PPP government’s latest warning of filing sedition charges against former twice-elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani media is hinting at the possibility of a military intervention to clean up the current mess.
Hardly a year after the 2008 general elections, Pakistan has been hit by a serious stand-off between the Pakistan People’s Party and the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-N since the latter’s leaders Nawaz and Shahbaz were barred by the Supreme Court from contesting polls and holding elected office, allegedly under the influence of President Asif Ali Zardari. The media reports here say the government’s Monday warning by the PPP government’s Advisor on Interior Rehman Malik to file treason charges against Nawaz Sharif for inciting the masses against the government, could lead to further chaos and a prolonged period of disturbance in Pakistan which could eventually bring Pakistan Army back into the saddle.
Pakistan’s leading English newspaper Daily Times said in its Tuesday editorial: “Now that the two mainstream political parties of the country have virtually declared doors of reconciliation shut, there is a possibility of the army stepping in to bring the country back to normal. We sincerely hope this doesn’t happen. The Pakistan army is incapable of providing any political solutions as we have learnt from our bitter experience time and again. But if this does come to pass, this time too the politicians would be to blame. From the hostile mood being displayed on both sides of the barricades, one can conjecture that violence will characterise the Long March (scheduled for March 16) right from its start and that it would be countrywide”.
On the other hand, the western powers are still making efforts to broker a truce between Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari. Well informed diplomatic circles in Islamabad say the international reconciliatory endeavours being led by the US and the UK are the last ditch efforts for a patch-up between the leaders of the two mainstream political parties, failing which the current political players could be asked to pack up and give way to an apolitical neutral caretaker set up. The sources said that there are indications that the Obama administration is keen on Zardari patching up with the Sharif and not precipitate the situation any further. The Obama administration believes that the political instability triggered by the Sharifs’ ouster from power in Punjab and the upcoming long march could lead to a prolonged spell of disturbance which would seriously undermine the US-led war on terror. These concerns were discussed with the Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani by some senior American government officials when he was in Washington last week.
The diplomatic sources said the degree of the western concern over the situation in Pakistan is further reflected in the recent comments made by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who has urged Pakistani leaders to forge unity in the face of the grave security threats. The sources said the leading foreign nations were trying to avert the Long March and reach a settlement to Zardari-Sharifs row in next few days and for that they were engaged through their envoys in intense negotiations with both Sharif and Zardari. The western powers believe that once the march started and people are on streets then the situation could go anywhere and if the demonstrations turned violent it would leave the military establishment with no other choice but to intervene to save the country from fatal harm and damage.
The diplomatic sources say the international players that had been instrumental in bringing democracy back to Pakistan after eight-year Musharraf rule loathed any such scenario for Pakistan but they too would be compelled to extend support to a new ruling set up comprised of neutral people for the next couple of years backed by military on the pattern of Bangladesh model. A senior foreign office official in Islamabad confirmed the efforts being made by Washington, London and other world capitals for rapprochement between the leading political players in the country. However, keeping in view the prevalent political mess, it seems that the leaders of the two key parties have already reached a point of no return.
Renowned defense analyst Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, therefore, writes in her weekly Tuesday column for daily Dawn: “The political confrontation is a reminder not only of the past but also of the myopia of politicians and political parties. Under the circumstances, one can easily predict that the boots will eventually march back from the barracks into the corridors of power – if not today or tomorrow then certainly the day after”. Therefore, change seems inevitable on the Pakistani political horizons in the weeks ahead. The million-dollar question remains will be whether such a change will make Pakistan a more stable country or push it further towards a failed state.
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