The Republican People’s Party (CHP), Türkiye’s oldest political party and the country’s main opposition, is once again trapped in a leadership crisis. What appears on the surface as a rivalry between Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the long-time party leader until late 2023, and Özgür Özel, his successor, is in reality a much deeper struggle over CHP’s direction, survival, and credibility as the only nationwide counterweight to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s entrenched rule.

 

 

The conflict is about far more than personalities: it is about how CHP positions itself in an authoritarian political climate, how it defends its municipalities and leaders from weaponized corruption charges, and how it balances unity with renewal at a moment when Erdoğan’s government is beset by economic collapse yet still masters the art of discrediting its rivals.

 

Kılıçdaroğlu’s legacy: Persistence without victory

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu led the CHP from 2010 to 2023, positioning himself as a soft-spoken, cautious, and steady hand. Under his leadership, the party:

Yet, despite this persistence, Kılıçdaroğlu became synonymous with defeat. His cautious style never translated into a decisive national breakthrough. The final blow came with the 2023 presidential election: despite unprecedented economic crisis, Erdoğan’s grip on power held, and Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign failed to inspire a majority.

For many CHP members, that loss confirmed what had long been suspected: Kılıçdaroğlu could not win, and his leadership was now a liability.

Özgür Özel: The face of change

Özgür Özel, a younger parliamentarian with a reformist profile, capitalized on the demand for change. In November 2023, he was elected party leader in a contentious congress that symbolized a generational handover.

Özel’s leadership energized a demoralized party. But success brought new risks: Erdoğan’s regime, recognizing the potential of a younger, sharper opposition leader, moved to neutralize CHP’s momentum through the same methods it had used against İmamoğlu — weaponized courts, trustees, and corruption investigations.

The weaponization of corruption charges

The flood of corruption accusations against CHP municipalities cannot be seen as normal accountability. Instead, they represent a deliberate campaign by Erdoğan’s government to tarnish the opposition’s clean-image advantage at a time of spiraling economic crisis.

What makes this more toxic is the role of Kılıçdaroğlu in this environment. Instead of closing ranks, he has at times remained silent, and even suggested that wrongdoing may have occurred at the 2023 party congress. Many in CHP interpret this as a tacit abetting of the ruling coalition’s strategy. Whether out of resentment at losing the chairmanship or loyalty to his own factional networks, Kılıçdaroğlu’s hints validate Erdoğan’s narrative, weakening Özel at a critical moment.

This dynamic transforms an internal rivalry into an existential question: can CHP defend itself collectively against a regime-engineered smear campaign, or will internal fractures do the government’s work for it?

Internal party factionalism

CHP’s current turmoil also reflects its chronic factional divides:

These fault lines are now being tested under judicial pressure: with courts intervening in provincial branches and even challenging the legitimacy of Özel’s congress victory, factional disputes risk becoming existential crises.

Performance as counterweight to Erdoğan

Here lies the central strategic debate. Has Özel been effective as a counterweight to Erdoğan?

Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu’s silence or insinuations about corruption serve to undermine CHP’s unity, leaving Özel exposed and Erdoğan emboldened.

What to Know About Özel Going Forward

Özgür Özel embodies both promise and peril for CHP.

Özel’s real test will be whether he can transform CHP’s local momentum into national viability, while surviving a political environment where courts, prosecutors, and media are systematically deployed against him.

CHP at a crossroads

The Kılıçdaroğlu–Özel rivalry is more than an internal party feud; it is a reflection of the broader fate of opposition politics in Türkiye.

Corruption allegations, far from being neutral checks on governance, are part of an orchestrated campaign by an economically embattled Erdoğan regime to neutralize all challengers, from İmamoğlu to Özel. Kılıçdaroğlu’s silence — or worse, his echoes of government narratives — deepens the fissures.

In the end, the question is stark: will CHP act as a unified, credible counterweight to Erdoğan, or will it remain trapped in a cycle of rivalry and recrimination that only serves the ruling coalition?

The answer may well determine not only the future of the CHP, but the future of Turkish democracy itself.

 

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