Israel to Resume Attacks on Lebanon?

Our sources in South Lebanon predict that Israel will carry out new strikes in Lebanon targeting the remaining Hezbollah weapon storage and missile launching sites before the ceasefire deadline expires. The information also points out that U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will deliver a final warning to Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in a dual message directed to the Lebanese state and to Hezbollah. Hochstein is expected to visit Lebanon after the New Year holiday, marking his final visit.

According to reports, both Israel and the U.S. – the main backer of the ceasefire agreement – have expressed dissatisfaction at the slow pace at which the Lebanese army is dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure as per the agreement signed by the Lebanese government. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s leadership is continuing to operate based on the strategy it adopted after the 2006 July War, attempting to circumvent the agreement and to retain what is left of its weapons under the pretext of “resisting Israel until the liberation of Lebanese territories, including the Shebaa Farms and Kfarshuba Hills”.

Earlier reports had revealed Hezbollah’s attempts to bypass the ceasefire agreement at a meeting between Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa and Nabih Berri’s advisor, to Ahmed Baalback. They reportedly asked for help in facilitating Hezbollah’s retention of its military stores, or at the very least, to allow a token hand over of Hezbollah’s arsenal, whether in the south of the Litani River region or further north.

The U.S. side in the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee insists that the surrender of Hezbollah’s weapons should be well documented, including photographs and all possible details – similar to the surrender of positions held by Syria-aligned Palestinian factions in the “Naameh” and “Qusayyah” hills. The U.S. and Israel will not accept mere statements issued by the Lebanese Army claiming the confiscation of Hezbollah weapons or ammunition storages.

In a related development, Nidaa al-Watan Beirut daily, claimed today that Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun told the Saudis, during his recent visit to Riyad, that the Lebanese Army shall not engage in an armed confrontation with Hezbollah. Unless Hezbollah hands over its weapons and ammunition depots to the army voluntarily, the army will not seize these storages by force.

The information further suggests that, based on these developments, the coming days will might increased Israeli escalation, similar to the recent airstrike in the Bekaa and the bombing of seven crossings between Lebanon and Syria yesterday. There are, also, concerns about the resumption of assassinations operations against Hezbollah operatives or strikes across multiple Lebanese regions, leading to Hezbollah’s acknowledgment of defeat and voluntary and public surrender of its weapons to the Lebanese Army.