Hit Me Please, Harder, Harder!

Since the revolution of 1979, Iran and its Ayatollahs have sought a Shia revolution to achieve a regional caliphate. In their world view, the largest obstacle is the United States (the Big Satan) and by extension, their closest ally in the region, Israel (Little Satan). Little Satan must go first after which the American influence in the region can be eliminated (including Gulf and other Sunni States). They fully understand the Western weakness of appeasement in order to avoid war until in Western thought, no alternative exists.Thus, playing for time while crawling towards their goal is a key Iranian objective.

The Iranian strategy is two-fold; the first is in the use of proxies which they have methodically built up by exploiting the weaknesses of neighboring countries to create and fund several terrorist entities including Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthis (Yemen), Shia militias in Syria and Shia militias now incorporated in the Iraqi government, and the second is to build itself a nuclear power, after which it will be fully armed and emboldened to execute its goal of  regional hegemony. The proxy strategy also provides Iran with a regional, defensive shield until its nuclear aspirations are realized.

As stated, Iran’s first objective is to annihilate Israel. Israel, backed fully by the United States, is the key regional superpower and Iran’s largest immediate threat. Unwilling to risk everything in a direct war with Israel until it feels ready, it has utilized its proxies to build a ring of fire around Israel, constantly threatening the country’s existence. Its largest and most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, has two purposes; one is to constantly keep Israel engaged in minor skirmishes, but more importantly, the second is a threat to prevent Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear development until the project is finished.

Iran fully understands and relies on the lack of political will of Western countries to use military force to engage with Iran over its nuclear development, and that Israel is unable to eliminate this threat on their own. Past American presidents reaching as far back to Reagan have used their influence with Israel to prevent a direct attack. H.W. Bush, Clinton, G.W. Bush and Obama have all maintained that diplomacy and sanctions were the only viable route to halt Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Western leaders fail to understand that all final decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme Ayatollah, who is motivated by ideology, leaving economics to others, thus sanctions are an ineffective foreign policy tool. Over the past few decades, results of this failed policy of sanctions saw Iran forge ahead with its nuclear program. Obama’s JCPOA was only designed to kick the can further down the road, while President Trump’s cancellation of the JCPOA (at Netanyahu’s urging) indeed ended a bad deal, but in typical Trump/Netanyahu fashion, failed to replace it with a credible military threat or any strategic plan that would halt Iran’s nuclear march forward. Estimates are now that Iran is only weeks away from a Nuclear breakout, once again proving in the Middle East, diplomacy without a real credible military threat is doomed to complete failure.

Presently, Iran faces serious risks in a full-blown war with Israel. Yes, they can inflict damage with their arsenal of long range ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles and drones, but currently they have no real air force and very little in the way of air defenses and none of that is a match for Israel’s fleet of F-35s (defenses consisting of some Russian s-300 and locally developed air defense systems). Their main economic driver is the oil fields, refineries and the main port (combined about 35% of total GDP). Currently, Iran is barely afloat economically thanks to years of sanctions, extremely high levels of inflation, currency crashes and large debt levels. Severe damage to their oil revenues would easily push them past the brink and by some estimates doom the Ayatollah to the dustbin of history. Most of their nuclear facilities are buried deep below the ground, but several components necessary to fully nuclearize are within Israel’s reach.

Iran has been one of the largest arms suppliers to Russia in its war with Ukraine, and thus Russia owes Iran big time. It is reported that after years of refusing, Russia has finally agreed to supply Iran with both its most modern and sophisticated fighter jets as well as the S-400 air defense systems. Once delivered, this will be a game changer, as it will eliminate the current overwhelming advantage that Israel enjoys.

Situated directly on Israel’s northern border is Iran’s most heavily armed proxy, that not only has the strongest non-state military in the world, but also controls and paralyzes the state in which it resides. Israel fought a brutal 34 day war with Hezbollah in 2006, which ended in a UN sponsored ceasefire (UN Resolution 1701), This resolution called for the full cessation of hostilities, withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to north of the Litani River, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind the Blue Line (internationally recognized border between Israel and Lebanon) and deployment of the Lebanese Army with the assistance of UNIFIL, and most importantly called for no other armed group to be located in this “buffer zone”. Needless to say, with Iran financing, Hezbollah not only refused to withdraw, but has spent the last 18 years rapidly building up its military capabilities in the south of Lebanon between the Blue Line and the Litani River.

In 2006 at the time of the war with Lebanon, Hezbollah possessed unsophisticated short range missiles, no drones and an untested, small land force. In the 18 years since this war, Iran has supplied Hezbollah with over 150,000 missiles and advanced drones while Hezbollah itself built a well trained modern army estimated to be over 100,000 fighters. As this build-up was happening, Israel had multiple times considered a preemptive war with Hezbollah. General consensus in Israel was that a war with Lebanon was eventually inevitable, but in each instance Israel refrained as it lacked the political will to take action. With every passing year, Hezbollah strengthened so the longer Israel waits, the more painful a war in the north will be. Currently, Hezbollah’s main threat to Israel is its missile and drone arsenal, but it lacks an air force, air defenses and heavy artillery one needs to properly defend a land invasion. Lebanon as a country is bankrupt, with electricity limited to several hours per day, high unemployment, few social services and a demoralized population. All Lebanese key infrastructure is unprotected against Israeli air strikes so an all out war with Israel would be a final nail in the Lebanese economy and most likely result in a “failed state” status for Lebanon.

A war with Hezbollah would be painful for Israel. Thousands of missiles fired daily throughout Israel would force the bulk of the population into underground shelters, harm the economy and cause civilian casualties.  An Israeli land invasion into Lebanon and intensive bombing of key infrastructure would lessen the damage to Israel and eventually decimate Hezbollah’s military ability. This would then most likely lead to their loss of control over the Christian, Sunni and Druze populations in Lebanon itself.

Concurrent to the above, the U.S. has the largest naval and air force build up in the region, exceeding that of the Gulf War (excluding ground forces, which Israel does not require), including almost three carrier groups consisting of the Lincoln, Roosevelt and Wasp (like a mini carrier), multiple other naval battleships and cruisers, at least one submarine (USS Georgia), and fleets of F-22, F35, F15 and F16 fighter jets. President Biden has committed these forces to assist in protecting Israel from Iranian and Hezbollah attacks. Their defensive abilities far outweigh their capabilities in April’s Iranian one-time attack on Israel, and as opposed to last April, Biden has conveyed to Iran that they will not be able to restrain Israel from launching a devastating retaliatory attack. Thanks to the huge assistance provided by the U.S., Iran and Hezbollah’s offensive weapon effectiveness would be significantly reduced, and as stated, they have few defensive capabilities.

The degree of American political will to assist in defending Israel and even assisting offensively depends greatly on how Israel moves forward with a Gazan ceasefire. If Israel is seen as honestly working towards an agreement and acquiesces to Biden’s new ”bridging” proposal then regardless of whether Hamas accepts or refuses the ceasefire deal, American backing of Israel will be ironclad. If Israel is seen as the refusing party, American support will exist but be more conditional.

The confluence that currently exists of an Israeli population’s national and political will to go to war with that of an incredible build up of American military might in the region may finally safeguard Israel’s existence for decades to come. Thus, Israel will finally be able to rid itself of the ring of fire that Iran spent years developing in order to strangle Israel. The other Iranian proxies will lose their major backing/funding. The Houthis will be left to fend for themselves against a vengeful Saudi Arabia, and it’s impossible to foresee how Iranian influence over Iraq and Syria will play out. An additional side benefit for the Americans is that Russia will lose a major arms supplier in its war with Ukraine.

Going to war with Iran and Hezbollah will be a harsh and painful period for Israel and lives will be lost. Conversely, not eliminating the significant existential threats Iran and Hezbollah pose will force Israel  to live on borrowed time until the country is no longer able to successfully defend itself against those who truly aspire to wipe it off the face of this planet.  

So, for the sake of Israel’s survival, I say again, hit me now and hard enough to warrant a full-scale retaliation.