The media, which should have known better, are talking about the day after the Gaza war as if it will be characterized by a political solution for peace. This is the last thing that will be possible after the war ends, if and when it does. Arab positions have become severely radicalized, and this is because the war in Gaza and on Israel’s northern border have given rise to new hope in the hearts of the Palestinians and the Arabs. This new hope is based on the belief that Israel is not as strong as they thought and as it presented itself, and that in fact according to the testimony of Israelis themselves – on numerous television shows – had Hizbullah done as expected, that is, fire thousands of missiles a day out of its arsenal of 150,000 and unleash its Radwan force to raid the Galilee, it is not clear that Israel would still be in existence today.
The Arabs have also learned that taking hostages is a strategic weapon to be used against those with Western values. It should be assumed that in any future war in which one side is Western, whether Israel or anyone else, this weapon will be used.
For these reasons, the chance of a successful arrangement is now much lower than it was previously.
In addition, in light of the catastrophes that the war has brought, the Arabs have learned that the use of Arab civilians as human shields is highly effective against Israel and similar foes. This is because in the end, the Western world does not blame Hamas for taking hostages and using their own people as human shields, but blames Israel for fighting for its life.
All this has given the Arabs and Palestinians new hope. It is not yet the time to make peace – only temporary arrangements.
In light of this situation, there are two approaches: One is that of President Trump, and the other is that of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Qatar, Hamas, and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Trump’s approach is drastic: Free all the hostages, or there will be hell to pay. Or, in the absence of peace, evacuate everyone from Gaza and turn it into a riviera.
In contrast, there is the phased approach of agreements – another five hostages, another 10 hostages, another cohort of several hundred Palestinian security prisoners released, another 30 days, another 42 days. This is the approach favored by the Netanyahu-Qatar-Hamas-Witkoff quartet.
Without judging the practicality or morality of either of these approaches, and while many protest against the Trump plan as immoral, but have nothing to say about immorality of Hamas’s plan to transfer all the Jews out of Israel after they win (that is, the Jews who survive the coming massacre), what is clear is that at this point, no solution is possible. Inter alia, this is because the Arab countries, including those who signed peace agreements with Israel such as the UAE, have no real interest in peace with Israel. This is after Israel proved to be treacherous – namely, after the UAE made peace with Israel, Israel went with Qatar, the UAE’s enemy and the foremost sponsor of Islamist terrorism worldwide. As for Egypt, all it wants is a fat cut of the Gaza reconstruction funds.
Tomorrow, March 4, the Cairo conference postponed from February 27 will take place. Today, they are already saying that there will be another conference in Riyadh on March 6. The disagreements among all the Arab elements and the Palestinians vis-à-vis the future are such that it is hard to believe that anything will emerge from these conferences.
What Should An Palestinian-Arab Conference Discuss In Order To Achieve Peace?
Before getting to specific solutions, it must discuss questions of principle – that is, the question of their approach to Israel. The Palestinians are facing an existential test. They must recognize the fact that the Jewish people have deep roots in the land that was theirs 2,000 years ago, and that the Jews can further expand this connection despite the Palestinians’ violent attacks. Thus, in order to save what remains of Palestine, the Palestinians must completely give up the idea of return to pre-1967 Israel – the return that was promoted over the decades by the UN, via UNRWA, and that means the end of Israel. No other group of refugees has ever had such an idea nurtured in their midst – just the Palestinians.
The Palestinians must change their approach to Israel and the Jews. Even then, their future as a people is not assured. This choice is tough as hell – but what is certain is that if they do not choose it, after nearly 77 years of Israel’s existence, they will be lost as a people.
They can learn from the Zionist leader David Ben Gurion, who was ready to accept any partition plan, partial as it was. They can also learn from the Zionist leader Yigal Allon, who maintained that this is our land, but that this does not mean that it cannot be shared or divided, out of humane concerns.
There is an urgent need for this decision. At this very moment, before the war is renewed in full force, will the Palestinians have the strength to make such a decision? Apparently not. The Jews accepted it only after the Jewish leadership – Ben Gurion, Allon – did so because the Jewish people had already experienced 2,000 years of suffering and persecution culminating in the Holocaust, choosing survival and humanity. For Hamas and the Palestinians, as for most of the Arabs, their political culture is one of victory, and Islam is a religion of empowerment and triumph. Survival and humanity are not built into their political and religious culture, as they are for the Jews.
Two weeks after the war began, on October 23, 2023, I published an article titled About the Future. In it, I wrote that the war would continue for about another decade. When asked why I was so pessimistic, I said, “Pessimistic? I am realistic. It could take a lot longer.”
As the renowned Moroccan liberal intellectual Tahar ben Jelloun, idol of the left in Europe, put it sorrowfully but truthfully: “The Palestinian cause died on October 7, 2023, murdered by fanatic elements mired in an Islamist ideology of the worst kind.”
* Yigal Carmon is Founder and President of MEMRI.