LAHORE: Amidst worsening political crisis in Pakistan, Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani has finally stepped in and asked Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani to play his role to defuse the escalating tension if President Asif Zardari does not agree to step back and accept some of the opposition parties’ demands, mainly the reinstatement of the Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League government in Punjab which is under the Governor’s rule now a days.
According to well informed government circles in Islamabad, General Kayani and Premier Gillani had agreed in their Wednesday meeting [when Zardari was away in Iran on an official tour]that the obstinacy being shown by President Zardari was bound to complicate the situation and may result in worsening the present political mess. The President remains deeply unpopular, unable to shake off a reputation for corruption despite spending long years in jail without ever being convicted. In their meeting, the civilian and military leadership shared grave concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in wake of the call for the long march and sit-in by the opposition parties, lawyers and civil society activists. Therefore, the sources said, the Army Chief asked the Premier to come forward and exercise his constitutional and administrative authority to rectify the mess.
Subsequently, Gillani, in his push for a grand political reconciliation, is devising a strategy that can put an end to the growing political turmoil. His close circles say Gillani might ask the president to lift the Governor’s rule and reinstate the deposed judges – two major demands of the opposition parties – to stop the long march which would eventually culminate in a sit in outside the presidency in Islamabad till the acceptance of their demands. However, the sources say, if Asif Zardari refuses to accept these two major demands to resolve the crisis, Premier Gillani might take both these actions on his own while defying the presidency. He could simply reinstate the judges through an executive order besides sending an advice to the president to end the Governor’s rule in Punjab, and he will be bound to sign it.
There are a many in the military establishment who now see President Zardari, like Musharraf before him, as part of the problem only because he is not acting as the president of the country. They say Zardari, instead of playing a fatherly role, has reduced himself to the PPP chairman who is only looking after his personal interests. Under these circumstances, if Zardari does not step back and provokes more confrontation instead of going for a national reconciliation, there is a strong possibility of the ruling coalition allies and sections of Zardari’s own PPP finally withdrawing their support from him. If that happens, many political observers in Islamabad believe, the army might intervene in advising a controversial Zardari to step down.
However, being someone who has made conscious efforts from the day one since assuming the office of the army chief in December 2007 to keep the Army away from politics, there are very few chances of General Ashfaq Kayani deciding to take over. Kayani would most likely use his influence to make Gillani actual incharge of the governmental affairs, in view of the fact that he is acceptable to both the ruling as well as the opposition parties in the Parliament. To recall, Premier Gillani was the first Prime Minister in the history of Pakistan to have been elected unanimously by all the political parties, including the PML-Q, MQM, ANP, JUI and the PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif.
On the other hand, the fact remains that constitutionally speaking, Zardari is the most powerful civilian leader in the country’s history given the fact that he is still enjoying all those administrative powers which General Musharraf had vested in him by amending the Constitution. Therefore, by virtue of his powers, he can sack the army chief any time to bring in a general of his own choice. Already, there are media reports saying quiet efforts have already begun to push Zardari’s choice of generals to the top. The buzz in the Presidency is that Zardari is in a hurry and is already privately meeting those generals who are set to retire soon. According to one source, at least three uniformed officers have been seen visiting the Presidency at odd hours, like 3 am, and General Headquarters has already been alerted.
However, there are those in the khaki circles who say if President Zardari is even thinking of any such idea, this will be his last move before being sent home, as had happened in October 1998 when Nawaz Sharif had decided to sack Army Chief Musharraf, prompting Brigade 111 of the Army in Islamabad to strike back and topple the Sharif government. There is a feeling in the khaki circles that the ever-ambitious Zardari has been gambling away the people’s mandate, and the Army’s confidence in him, quite recklessly. However, if the Army Chief decides to stay neutral and Zardari decides not to proceed against him, an imminent show of street power Nawaz Sharif through a long march on March could still create some serious problems for Zardari.
In fact, there are those in the PML-N who believe Zardari’s stubbornness actually suits twice elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who has actually gained from the presidential act of sacking the PML-N government in Punjab and invoke the Governor’s rule there. They are of the view that the presidential action against the PML-N and the ensuing anti-government stance taken by Sharif has given a major boost to his popularity among the masses. Fighting for his political life, Sharif has called people onto the streets, making his own cause part of the struggle for an independent judiciary, even talking in terms of a revolution. Sharif’s close circles even say he might be preparing himself to contest an early general election in the country which could be held by the end of 2009 under a neutral caretaker government, provided the current crisis persists and leads to the dismissal of the government.
As Zardari and Sharif remain locked in a power struggle, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf has stepped back into the public eye. After months of seeking solace on the tennis court and golf course, the former strongman has in recent weeks given a flurry of speeches and press conferences despite the fact that he was not allowed to speak. Talking to the Pakistani media early this week after he returned home from India, Musharraf went to the extent of talking about the prospect of his political comeback which seems highly unlikely.
The political crisis in Pakistan has already caused serious concern in Washington amidst media reports that the Obama administration is deeply worried about a failed government in Pakistan pulling down the American plans for Afghanistan and the South Asian region. Washington is opposed to any further upheaval in Pakistan in view of acute security threat from al-Qaeda and Taliban which are still thriving on the Pak-Afghan belt. Pakistan is already Obama’s headache and there is a sense of acute urgency in Washington for bringing back a semblance of order in the country. An unsettled Pakistan can become the new President’s first foreign policy failure. Therefore, there are indications that the decision makers in White House are keen on Zardari patching up with Sharif and not precipitate the situation any further. Otherwise, the US could even withdraw its crucial support for Zardari who is increasingly becoming a liability.
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