Policy Focus #106
The next war on Israel’s northern border will bear little resemblance to the 2006 confrontation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hizballah in Lebanon. This conflict is likely to be broader and much more intense, certainly Israel’s most serious since 1973, with the potential to transform the wider region both militarily and politically.
In this new Washington Institute Policy Focus, Jeffrey White offers not a prediction of war, but rather an estimation of what renewed hostilities between Israel and Hizballah might look like. In a meticulously calculated forecast of the future battlefield — supplemented by original maps and graphics — White outlines the capabilities and operational objectives of the two sides, the potentially game-changing roles played by Syria and Iran, and the possible impact on the region’s postconflict military and political environments.
White concludes that this is the war the IDF must win. For the losers — and for the region — the consequences may be fateful, and Washington should be developing its own concrete plans and preparatory steps now.
DOWNLOADABLE MAPS
Notional Israeli Air Force Operations against Hizballah
Notional Israeli Offensive Operations in Southern Lebanon
Selected Rocket and Missile Coverage of Israel from Potential Launch Areas in Lebanon
Notional Hizballah Offensive Operations in Northern Israel
Notional Hizballah Defense Concept
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