Hezbollah, which has been nurtured over the years by Iran to assist it in the event of an Israeli attack, has been forced to remain outside the current circle of fighting and to adhere, for now, to the strategy of “containment” it adopted following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon (November 27, 2024).
In statements released by the organization after the initial wave of attacks on targets in Iran, Israel was accused of criminal aggression backed by the United States, endangering the stability and security of the entire region without justification, and it was promised that this aggression would not go unpunished. The organization called on countries in the region to act against Israel and expressed solidarity with Iran and confidence in its ability to respond and defend itself. However, the possibility of Hezbollah joining the war was not mentioned in the statements. At the same time, Reuters quoted a senior Hezbollah official who clarified that the organization would not attack Israel in response to its strikes in Iran.
Hezbollah’s decision to refrain at this stage from attacking Israel stems from a series of constraints, chief among them its weakness following its defeat in the war; its desire to create an illusion of calm in order to regroup and rebuild its capabilities; and, on the other hand, the ongoing Israeli attacks on its operatives and infrastructure on a daily basis to prevent its reestablishment in southern Lebanon and to foil its efforts to rebuild its military power. Added to this are internal pressures, primarily from the new leadership in Lebanon, which has declared a vision of dismantling Hezbollah and all militias in the country and insists on maintaining the authority over decisions regarding war and peace. This leadership is also under pressure from the United States, Western countries, and Gulf states, which are conditioning critical aid to Lebanon on the disarmament of Hezbollah.
It is therefore clear that the official Lebanese position is to avoid involvement in another war, especially as the country still struggles to recover from the extensive destruction caused by the previous Israel–Hezbollah war. In their public statements, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam have indeed strongly condemned Israel, claiming that it threatens regional stability and blatantly violates international law. At the same time, according to Lebanese sources, the Lebanese leadership has sent clear messages to Hezbollah warning it not to drag Lebanon into a conflict with which it has no connection—and that anyone who involves Lebanon will bear responsibility.
In conclusion, at this stage, Hezbollah appears to remain outside the circle of war, but it is still too early to determine whether it will maintain this stance in the event of a prolonged conflict and worsening Iranian distress.