Details emerge of a controversial ‘roadmap’ for reforms that would leave him in power despite demands for his overthrow
Ian Black, Middle East editor
The US is pushing the Syrian opposition to maintain dialogue with Bashar al-Assad’s regime as details emerge of a controversial “roadmap” for reforms that would leave him in power for now despite demands for his overthrow during the country’s bloody three-month uprising.
Syrian opposition sources say US state department officials have been discreetly encouraging discussion of the unpublished draft document, which circulated at an unprecedented opposition conference held on Monday in Damascus. But Washington denies backing it.
Assad would oversee what the roadmap calls “a secure and peaceful transition to civil democracy”. It calls for tighter control over the security forces, the disbanding of “shabiha” gangs accused of atrocities, the legal right to peaceful demonstrations, extensive media freedoms, and the appointment of a transitional assembly.
The carefully phrased 3,000-word document demands a “clear and frank apology” and accountability for organisations and individuals who “failed to accommodate legitimate protests”, and compensation for the families of victims. The opposition says 1,400 people have been killed since mid-March. The government says 500 members of the security forces have died.
It calls for the ruling Ba’ath party to be subject to a new law on political parties – though the party would still provide 30 of 100 members for a proposed transitional national assembly. Seventy others would be appointed by the president in consultation with opposition nominees.
Several of the proposed measures have already been mentioned in public by Assad, fuelling speculation that he is at least partially following through on some of the document’s recommendations.
The roadmap is signed by Louay Hussein and Maan Abdelsalam, leading secular intellectuals in a group called the National Action Committee. Both men met the vice-president, Farouk al-Sharaa, before Assad’s most recent speech, diplomats said. On Monday they chaired the Damascus conference, which had official permission, was attended by 150 people – and was publicly welcomed by the US.
Wael Sawah, another member of the group, is an adviser to the US embassy in Damascus but did not sign the text, apparently so as not to discredit it in the eyes of Syrians suspicious of foreign meddling.
Quiet US interest in the roadmap dovetails with public demands from Washington that Assad reform or step down. Robert Ford, the US ambassador, has been urging opposition figures to talk to the regime, said Radwan Ziadeh, a leading exile, who insisted the strategy would not work. “They are asking Bashar to lead the transition and this is not acceptable to the protesters,” he said. “It is too late.”
The state department has been forced to defend Ford from Republican critics who have demanded his withdrawal. It has said he meets a “broad cross-section of the opposition” and “occasionally…with members of the government as appropriate.” Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, has said Assad is losing legitimacy and is not indispensable. But the US has not called openly for his overthrow – in striking contrast to policy towards Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
“It would be a big mistake if the Americans tried to influence this initiative and for the opposition to let them,” warned a prominent Syrian intellectual with close links to the regime. “I would advise them to distance themselves from the US.”
A state department spokesman said: “We are encouraging genuine dialogue between the opposition and the regime but we are not promoting anything. We want to see a democratic Syria but this is in the hands of the Syrian people.”
Opposition figures are deeply divided over the way ahead, though even those arguing for engagement are far from certain it will work: “The situation may be at such an impasse that it precludes opportunities for co-operation and political dialogue and the feasibility of any proposal for reconciliation,” the text warns.
Worries are growing that the regime may be recovering its poise in the absence of significant defections from the military, government or business elite.
Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma, said: “The US approach makes sense. Sanctions are a slippery slope and they’re not going to intervene militarily in Syria. They have to explore what this regime is capable of.”
Others fear that Assad may be trying to buy time. “This is a blueprint for reform in Syria that would leave the regime in place,” warned one opposition figure. “It’s the minimum to keep the west happy. The regime wants to create an official opposition and sideline others. How can I give legitimacy to Bashar al-Assad when there are a million people on the streets demanding he be removed?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/