By MArc Lynch
Mohammed Mehdi Akef, the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, has just announced that he will not seek a second term and will step down within a few months. This announcement by the 81 year old Akef creates an extremely interesting and important moment in the history of the Brotherhood. The change in leadership has potentially wide-ranging implications for moderate Islamist movements throughout the Middle East. Will he be replaced by a politically-oriented reformist or by a religiously-oriented conservative? Will he be replaced by an Egyptian or by a non-Egyptian from the global Brotherhood movement? And will his successor retain Akef’s strong hostility to al-Qaeda style jihadism and commitment to participation in the political process?
It may surprise people to realize that Akef will be replaced in an internally democratic process. As I understand the process, the Supreme Guide is elected by the Brotherhood’s Shura Council, which has 100 members — 80 of them elected by the membership of the organization and 20 of them holding ex officio membership (i.e. current and former members of the Guidance Council). Since the Muslim Brotherhood remains by far the largest and most politically significant mainstream Sunni Islamist movement, this internal election may be one of the most significant in the Middle East’s so-called “year of elections.”