Pierre Moussa interviewed by Christilla Moustier
In March 2011, at the dawn of the Arab spring, Pierre Moussa published “The 25 empires of the desert” (“Les 25 empires du désert”), a treatise as a complete series of events and issues that made the history of the Near and Middle East in recent thousands of years. History buff, Pierre Moussa, is also passionate about this region that stretches from Iran to Greece and the birthplace of agriculture, breeding, the city, writing, and later the three monotheisms, the alphabet and democracy. For Pierre Moussa, “the human race has lived its teenage years there.”
So as a specialist of issues in the region, Pierre Moussa gives us in this exclusive interview, a retrospective of the events (Arab revolt, rise of Islamism, Palestinian diplomatic offensive, moral crisis in Israel, nuclearization of the Iran, etc.) that shook the Middle East over the last 12 months.
As a graduate from the famous Ecole Normale Supérieure in France, Pierre Moussa passed the aggregation exam in literature and became a Senior treasury official. After a few years as senior civil servant, he managed the African department of the World Bank in the United States, before becoming one of the most important bankers in Paris chairing the Paribas Group. The 89-year-old Pierre Moussa has several projects in Africa, particularly since 1999 he chaired the Foundation for African company.
CdeM: The occurrence of the “Arab Spring” and its magnitude were they a surprise to you?
PM: Yes, for me and I think for everyone. In 2010, most Arab states – in North Africa and West Asia – were dominated by heads of state who seemed firmly established, and generally close to the western world. And here, suddenly, on December 13, 2010, in a small Tunisian town, a young man who claimed to have been stolen and abused, died by setting fire to himself; the people were unleashed; by January 17, 2011, the dictator Ben Ali abandoned the presidential power. Influenced by events in Tunisia, massive youth protests grew in Egypt (Cairo, Suez, Alexandria) and faced the police; hundreds were dead; the police were then replaced by the army who refused to fire on the protesters; on February 11, the dictator Mubarak gave up his presidential duties and left the country; in May, normal life had resumed in Egypt (with 70% less tourists than in 2010!).
In the first months of 2011, a number of other Arab nations stirred under the influence of events in Tunisia and Egypt: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon…
CdeM: What are the major causes of this unrest in the Arab world from December 2010 to March 2011?
PM: The major causes are varied: the abundance of Arab youth, high unemployment, corruption in government circles, the role of new communication technologies, the interminable length of terms of office of many leaders, the attitude of Western states, believing that such leaders were useful in the fight against terrorism.
CdeM: So the “Arab Spring” started first in Tunisia and Egypt, and then in most other Arab states?
PM: With one big difference: while Tunisia and Egypt each had, within a month, eliminated their heads of state, no other dictator in the Arab world has left office before October 20, 2011.
CdeM: Tunisia and Egypt are the only who have been to the end of their revolution?
PM: It is more complicated. Tunisia and Egypt have made their secular revolution in the early winter of 2010-2011. But in 2011, they have both experienced a significant turnaround.
In Tunisia, the “Arab spring” was based primarily on youth, women and laity; the Islamists have been slow to join; in 2011, the Ennhada party emerged and, on the Assembly election in November, brought together on his list almost all the Islamist votes, while other trends were scattered over a large number of lists. Ennhada has won. They want to be a moderate Islamist party (inspired by the AKP model in Turkey). They nevertheless defeated the secular actors in the revolt.
In Egypt, there were three forces: first the army (since the fall of the monarchy in 1953, Egypt has had four presidents: Naguib, Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, all four were from the army), secondly the Islamists, thirdly the laity (with many young people, women and Copts). In the first weeks of 2011, the laity have made the revolution, and the army (led by Marshal Tantawi) has made some sacrifices it has deemed necessary. But in the second half of 2011, the Islamists have become the key player; the parliamentary elections (from November 28, 2011 to January 14, 2012) seem likely to ensure the triumph of the Islamists. In January, demonstrators chanted “the people and the army form a single hand.” In November, they sang: “The army and police form one dirty hand.” After Mubarak, Tantawi is also lost.
CdeM: What about the other Arab nations?
PM: A variety of situations:
Algeria has been agitated since January 2011, but the country had just experienced a terrible decade of Islamic terrorism (200,000 dead!) and did not want to start over.
Libya was ruled by Colonel Gaddafi since 1969. On February 17, 2011, the revolution began there in the city of Benghazi. The struggle between the revolutionaries and the followers of Gaddafi was long and very severe, and it ended with the massacre of Gaddafi on 20 October.
In Morocco, the revolution began on February 20, 2011: the “February 20 movement”. Mohammed VI, who reigned for 12 years, had the wisdom to present fairly quickly a new constitution, which seemed to prepare for the birth of a parliamentary monarchy, under which the sovereign would appoint the head of government officials from party that will win the election. On November 25, early parliamentary elections took place; the turnout was 45% – the king had hoped it would exceed 50% -, moderate Islamists had been victorious.
In Yemen, major demonstrations, inspired by events in Tunisia and especially Egypt, demanded from the beginning of 2011 free elections and the departure of Saleh (President for 20 years for South Yemen, and 32 years for North Yemen) and clashed with tribes loyal to power. Saleh made a series of concessions in the first half of 2011; seriously wounded in an attack on June 3, hospitalized in Riyadh, surprisingly, he returned to Yemen on September 23. Soon after, he agreed to end his power in exchange for immunity from prosecution: in the space of 30 days, he would give up his power to the Vice President, who would form a government with the opposition. In the space of 90 days, the presidential elections would take place. The plan was set up in close liaison with the King of Saudi Arabia.
In Bahrain, Shiites (the majority), tired of being ruled by Sunnis, strongly demanded that the monarchy became Parliamentary (“in the UK model”). The protesters were brutally evicted by anti-riot police. On February 25, 2011, 150,000 people gathered in protests, including Sunnis joining the Shiites. But on March 14, a thousand Saudi soldiers and 500 police officers of the UAE arrived in Bahrain to help restore order. The “Arab spring” had been a failure in Bahrain.
Abdullah, King of Saudi Arabia (87 years), had played a very active role in the evolution of things in several countries of the Arabian Peninsula. On February 25, 2011, he returned from a long absence (3 months in the United States and Morocco, two surgeries) and has seen fit to distribute more than $100 billion to the Saudis, the police, the religious police and Islamic institutions to build mosques.
Syria had been since 1970 under the authority of Alawites (a sect of Shiite Islam, 12% of the population, 80% of leadership positions in the army) and the dictatorship of Hafez Al-Assad (1970 to 2000) and his son Bashar. On March 15, 2011, in the city of Deraa, fifteen children wrote “the country will see the fall of the regime” on a wall and they were tortured; hence strong protests in several cities. Bashar reacted with extreme violence, in less than two months more than 600 civilians were killed, 8,000 people were missing or detained. Britain, France, Germany and Portugal tried to promote a condemnation of this violence by the United Nations Security Council, but China and Russia blocked the procedure. Western countries had applied for rather serious economic sanctions on Syria. On November 28, 2011, the Arab League in turn inflicted unprecedented sanctions (freezing of commercial transactions with the Syrian government and bank accounts of the latter in Arab countries, suspension of air links between the Arab and Syria) , passed by 19 of 21 members of the League (only Iraq and Lebanon are dissociated).
Lebanon was in 2010, governed by a coalition (the “March 14”), including the Sunnis, Druze and some Christians, the Prime Minister was the Sunni Saad Hariri, son of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; the latter was killed in an attack in 2005; the United Nations had established a “Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” (“STL”) which, in 2010, was preparing to charge members of Hezbollah for the attack . In January 2011, a great change took place: the Druze suddenly left the “March 14 coalition” and joined another coalition, known as “March 8”, which included some of the Shiites and Christians. As a result, the majority swung in the hands of the coalition of March 8. The new government ceased to cooperate with the STL; and in 2011 Syria found the influence on Lebanon that it had lost since 2005. In November-December 2011, the severe position of France against the Syrian crisis had triggered a series of anti-French actions in Lebanon.
CdeM: You just mentioned a number of Arab nations but we have not talked about Palestine?
PM: It was indeed a single Arab nation until the separation in June 2007,where one part was ruled by Fatah (the West Bank) and the other was ruled by Hamas (Gaza). On April 27, 2011, Fatah and Hamas came to an agreement (in principle) to restore Palestinian unity. Other Arab countries pushed them, especially the new Egypt (Fatah-Hamas agreement was signed in Cairo).
In August 2009, Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, Salam Fayyad, had given himself two years to build the technical foundation of a real state (in 2011 he was almost there).
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority had come to realize that the endless negotiations between them and Israel in particular allowed Israel to expand the Jewish settlement constantly in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. So he resolved to change the method. He informed that if unwarranted delays occurred, he would go to the General Assembly of the United Nations seeking recognition and admission to the UN of a Palestinian state. This attitude earned Abbas renewed considerable popularity among Palestinians, not only in the West Bank but also in many Gazans. But the United States threatened to use their veto against this initiative. Among European countries, some were in favor of the Abbas’ initiative (including Spain), others were not (including Germany and Italy); France, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Luxembourg extolled a middle solution for Palestine to obtain a status of non-member or observer (as the Vatican).
Failing satisfaction at the UN, the Palestinians turned to Unesco. By 107 votes (including that of France), 14 against (including the U.S.), and 52 abstentions, Palestine became the 195th full member of Unesco (headquartered in Paris). Israel and the United States were very indignant.
CdeM: The “Arab Spring” is an Arabic event, but in front of the Arab countries, what was the attitude of non-Arab nations of the Middle East: Turkey, Iran and Israel?
PM: Let’s talk about Iran. It has a priority over the other two. (Medes and Persians even had an empire in the Middle East 14 centuries before the Arabs).
CdeM: Did the “Arab spring” have an influence on Iran?
PM: No. The power in Iran since 1979 has been in the hands of Islamists. A significant portion of its elite and its people have a political philosophy neighboring ideas that were expressed in Tunisia and Egypt in the winter of 2010-2011, but for now, they consider it prudent not to express.
The Iranian government has strong links with Hezbollah in Lebanon and with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It had been for long one of Syria’s Alawite supporters, but since the end of August 2011, it had been concerned by the imprudence of Bashar al-Assad; Tehran was prepared to host a meeting of Islamic countries in order to help Syria solve their problems. Iran and Iraq, after a long war that had opposed them from 1980 to 1988, have resumed their relationship in 2011; the United States even accused Iran of arming the rebels in Iraq.
The nuclearization of Iran was carried out with vigor and discretion. Does this nuclearization have a military component? Although Tehran says no, many among Iran’s neighbors and Western nations think so. And some derive consequences: in 2011 explosions took place in Iran destroying some facilities and several Iranian nuclear scientists were executed in 2010 and 2011. In November 2011, a new report by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) confirmed that Iran would likely have nuclear weapons within a very short time.
CdeM: What about Turkey?
PM: Because the Ottomans dominated the Middle East for five centuries (until 1918), they were even then regarded with hostility by the Arabs. But since Recep Tayiip Erdogan became Prime Minister of Turkey (in 2003), the situation had changed completely. Erdogan removed the military part of control over the country’s political life, built a viable democracy, and gave a great expansion in the Turkish economy; trade between Turkey and the Arab countries had grown considerably. In addition, the reluctance of Western Europeans to welcome them in the European Union, and the financial and economic crisis in Western Europe led them to the East. In September 2011, Erdogan, accompanied by 250 businessmen, made an extensive tour in North Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia). The Turkish government today gives the impression of seeking a reconciliation with both the Arab League and the West.
CdeM: It remains to take stock of Israel.
PM: Of the Middle Eastern countries, it has succeeded in developing a modern unequalled economy, a formidable military force; it is currently the only Middle Eastern country that has access to nuclear weapons; it continues to increase the size of the area occupied by the Israelis. And it enjoys, in the world of the U.S. election, a support which, on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, is of considerable importance.
But it is threatened by a nuclear Iran. It made the mistake of wearing out its relations with Arab countries to an extreme degree of tension. In addition – and perhaps even worse – the summer of 2011 saw a terrible social crisis emerge due to rising prices and inequality, there are now many ” Israelis outraged. ”
CdeM: Does the French policy in front of the situation in the Arab world and other Middle Eastern countries seem satisfactory to you?
PM: France, like other Western countries, committed for too long the mistake of finding the presence of ruthless (and often corrupt) dictators in many states of the Arab world and Middle East as convenient.
But in recent years France has significantly adjusted its behavior. Its courageous attitude in Libya, Syria and elsewhere, delighted the Democrats in the East, and Europe.
CdeM: Does the rise of political Islam in these countries seem to you cause for concern?
PM: The “Arab spring” was the work of young people (and women), but these young people (and women) have not forged a team capable of achieving what they wanted. The Islamists were not the authors of the revolution, but they had the necessary equipment. There had been substitution. The authors of the Arab spring can start (and likely prepare) to resume their rightful place. Perhaps the Christians, who are now experiencing a very difficult time in several Arab countries, will see come better days. And perhaps also the Jews (?). In February 2011, I completed my book “The 25 empires of the Desert” with the following sentence: “Let us not forget that Catholicism has long been regarded as incompatible with democracy.” In December 2011, this observation seems more useful than in February.
The 25 empires of the desert (in French): (Ed. Saint-Simon), March 2011