For the guarantors of the agreement, it was considered a betrayal, but for Sharif it was a triumphant return. Unfortunately, neither was there a million-man crowd waiting to greet him at the airport nor was there a mass movement against the Musharraf government. His idea and body language over the course of last week showed as if he were given a mantle of a Pakistani Mandela, or Imam Khomeini. He wanted to recreate the scenes of Tehran and repeatedly argued that no jail was big enough to keep him in. Regrettably what Sharif failed to understand is the hard lesson of history, what you put in is what you get out, compromises and secret deals result in puppet paper think leaderships, Nelson Mandela or Khomeini triumphant returns were based on no secret deals with mega rich Sheiks. Khomeini made no secret agreements with the Shah neither did Nelson Mandela with his tormentors.
Nawaz Sharif definitely has huge popular support and the government made sure that thousands of supporters were arrested, but he totally miscalculated the response of the establishment and lack of eagerness of mass support. On landing, he was greeted by the forces of the establishment and deported to Saudi Arabia. Mr. Sharif will not be very pleased with the outcome as he has established himself as a leader-in-waiting. It will all depend how his movement against Musharraf survives this latest setback. He was not expecting this rejection. On one hand, some say, it is a serious contempt of court by the Government of Pakistan since the Supreme Court clearly indicated that Sharif should be allowed to come back freely. And he had planned to travel to his home and political base in Lahore, but it was not to be. On the other hand, some think that up to last-minute denials of “no agreements” and then acceptance of the deal with the Saudi government was a lie to the nation. His agreement clearly stated his acceptance of a 10-year exile, rather than face lifelong imprisonment accorded by the courts in Pakistan nearly ten years ago.
He was sent into exile after being convicted of terrorism and hijacking charges in Pakistan in the 1999 coup. Mr. Sharif argued yesterday in London that although the agreement stated ten years in exile, Rafiq Hariri’s son, Saad Hariri, who was the intermediary between the Government of Pakistan and the Saudi government securing the release of Mr. Sharif, promised him that the agreement will only be valid for five years. The European Commission has denounced the expulsion of Sharif. They say if there was any legal case against Sharif, he should have the chance to defend himself in a Pakistani court of law.
For the guarantors of the agreement, it was about a moral agreement between an individual and a sovereign government which had far greater repercussions than politics. In times of political crises in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has intervened in the past. Their ambassador, Riad Al Khateeb, in 1977, was responsible for a reconciliation effort between Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his opposition. Even recently, in the case of Lal Mosque, the Imam of Makkah tried to convince the Lal Mosque-entrenched radicals to leave the mosque peacefully. For Saudis, the stability of Pakistan and its army are important goals of their political strategy.
Analysts are a bit perplexed as to why Prince Muqren Abdulaziz and Saad al Hariri played such an important role in highlighting the terms of the agreement which had remained a secret so far between Sharif and the Saudi government. Saudis rarely ever try to take sides, especially in sensitive situations like this, where a popular leader is being deported to the capital. After all, Jeddah suburbs, where Sharif will be deported, will not have the freedom of his Avonfield House in Park Lane or the cool and quiet suburb of Neuille from which Khomeini overthrew the kingdom of the Shah of Iran.
Nawaz Sharif wished to see millions of heads when his plane landed in Islamabad this morning, but what was met was the force of the State apparatus. His direct pleas to the millions to come out on the roads as the Nelson Mandela of Pakistan definitely fell on deaf ears. Unfortunately, the prodigal leadership of third world countries does not understand that revolutions are brought by people who have magnanimity, forbearance and who are detached from worldly possessions. The recent revolutions by Khomieni and Mandela did not possess palaces in London, steel factories in Saudi Arabia and multibillion dollar businesses across the globe.
Homecoming to Pakistan has turned sour. In absence of his free contact with the global press, his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, will carry the mantle. Now the question is: Will the people of Pakistan heed the cry of his party and come in throngs onto the streets to condemn his deportation? Will the strikes called by his party lead to the destabilization of Musharraf? Or will Supreme Court Justice, Iftikhar, treat this as contempt of court? The drama has just begun. The future stability of Pakistan depends on the response of the Supreme Court that, in turn, will depend on the reaction on the streets. If the reaction on the streets does not appear as a threat to Musharraf’s stability, then it seems that Musharraf might have handled this properly although Musharraf, politically, looks quite weakened; the only person who can salvage his position now is the Pakistan People’s Party’s leader, Benazir Bhutto. Politics has strange bedfellows. The political drama unveiling in Pakistan has all the contents of intrigue, conspiracy and can lead to unintended consequences.
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