A militia can harass a regular army, it can cause it serious pain, inflict specific casualties, but it cannot win a war. This logic is refuted by Hezbollah and its supporters. The destruction of Tel Aviv in 7 minutes and the takeover of the Galilee in few hours and all the other propaganda slogans have been hurled at us for too long, so we started believing them, or maybe not. In their twisted views, now surviving any attack from the IDF is a success by itself. When one starts using relative explanation to justify one’s inabilities and inactions, trouble follows quickly.
The role of Hezbollah has been to act as a terror proxy for Iran which, since 1982 has extended its long arm’s reach into Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean. After the exit of the PLO from Lebanon following the Israeli ground invasion of 1982, this ‘terror void’ was soon replaced by Hezbollah, acting at the behest of Iran, and under the close supervision of the regime of Hafez El Asad. Why did the Syrians allow, let alone tolerate, the presence of an Iranian proxy force in Lebanon? Firstly, because Hafez El Asad, just as Iran is doing presently, needed a buffer entity to tactically spar with Israel. His airforce was decimated over the skies of Lebanon and his ground forces were busy packing and fast running rather than pitching and fighting. With the PLO out, Hezbollah was welcomed in. Secondly, the animosity between the Syrian and Iraqi regimes dictated a rapprochement between the latter and Iran, in “the enemy of my enemy” type of a logic.
The Iraqi war throw everything off balance, and with the exit of the Syrian army from Lebanon in 2005, the void of the Syrian regime was filled, in nanoseconds, by the Iranian’s direct control of all affairs in Lebanon. Hezbollah became unchecked, unhinged, unbridled, arrogant and ultimately, vulnerable.
The 2006 war was devastating on the South and on Hezbollah but in the absence of any domestic force to quash its claims of victory, Hezbollah turned this defeat into success. It went boasting and offering its services to Iran in more than one country: Iraq, Yemen and most importantly, in Syria. During the Syrian civil war which started in 2011, Hezbollah got its ego inflated and its importance heightened in the eyes of its patrons in Iran. However, reckless behavior leads to dreadful results.
On the Syrian front, the Asad regime was in effect saved by Russia not by Iran or Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime started cautiously taking its distances. On the domestic front, the arrogance of Hezbollah rendered all other communities to become hostile towards it, whether overtly or covertly. On the Arab front, the government of Lebanon, at the behest of Iran, sowed belligerence and hostility with the Gulf nations especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The collapse of the financial sector in Lebanon in 2019 and the civil strife that ensued where Hezbollah partisans attacked and maimed civilian protestors started its sliding slope into becoming the true Pasdaran force in the country. Furthermore, the Beirut Port Blast in 2020, and the efforts of Hezbollah to conceal the truth and sabotage the judicial investigation have rendered it a pariah party for many Lebanese. For a moment, it had an ‘opening’ with the demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel, but that rare event which principally benefitted Israel, was soon squandered at the request of Iran which did not judge the period opportune to de-escalate with the U.S. Still Hezbollah cared little about the ‘others’ so long as it clung to its arsenal, to its own community, and to the Dhimmis politicians of Lebanon who feared it, and still do.
Came October 7, 2024, and the world of Hezbollah was turned upside down. Now it faces the full retaliation of Israel, the scorn of the U.S., the incapacity of the EU, the indifference of the Gulf Arab nations and the tactical retreat of Iran not to mention the total silence of Syria. Today Hezbollah stands alone as a party, alone with its community of partisans, and alone as the target of Israeli fighter jets, smart bombs, boobytraps, pager explosions and assassinations.
Hezbollah killed Lebanon’s PM Hariri in 2005 and after him a string of patriotic leaders from the March 14th movement. Hezbollah elected President Aoun who knowingly and willingly -along with PM Hariri the son- have given the keys of the official state apparatus to Hezbollah. One is in political demise at home, and the other is in exile abroad. Hezbollah has paralyzed and prevented the State from functioning, the economy from flourishing (not to mention its own dark economy and narcotrafficking business), the army from conducting its tasks, the UNIFIL from fulfilling its mission, and Lebanon from continuing to be a country, and gladly turned it into his turf.
Today, these suicidal choices will have to be answered by Hezbollah alone. No other country will come to its rescue, no other community will offer it any help. Countries will call for a ceasefire. NGOs will cry out about civilian casualties, and individuals -here and there- will pay lip service to the dead and wounded. That’s it. No more. So, Hezbollah which has glorified suicide for its members has now to experience it on itself as an organization.
Nasrallah cares more about people who clamor for his leadership and worship his shoes literally, than for voices of reasons or arguments of rationality.
“Leaders with toxic behaviors thrive on controlling people instead of inspiring them” Simon Sinek