Jim Prince on Iraq poll: the trend to compromise was true for Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds

Iraqi voters seem to have surprised most observers. Maliki didn’t get the expected over 120 seats, Allawi seems to be on equal footing with Maliki, the Shiite coalition did not achieve much, while the two main Kurdish parties lost seats. What happened?

Allawi’s strong showing definitely surprised observers who continuously pointed to the political rise of the Shiite religious parties since the last elections. Maliki’s effort to portray himself as a nonsectarian unifier was hurt by his decision to support the banning of hundreds of Sunni candidates based on past association with the Baath as well as a fear of increased Iranian influence and Shiah domination.

Although the Kurdish northern region experienced a very high voter turnout, the Kurdish Alliance will probably lose parliamentary seats. The Alliance was weakened by a unexpected strong showing by Gorran (“Change”), a Kurdish party which ran on a platform of changing the old Kurdish guard. The competitive race in cities such as Sulaimaniya also illustrate that the Kurds are further along in the process toward pluralism than other areas of the country. The degree by which the Kurds decrease in influence in the parliament largely depends on the whether Gorran and the Alliance can present a unified front in Baghdad and the final results from the disputed oil rich Kirkuk area..

Would you say that politics in Iraq is heading away from ideologies towards pragmatism and compromise?

I believe that the elections represented a significant step forward, despite minor irregularities and the ill-advised ban on former Baathists by the Justice and Accountability Committee. The leading coalitions all campaigned on who was better positioned and dedicated to healing sectarian divisions. Interestingly, many of these “reborn” nationalists,” regardless of sectarian allegiance, distributed campaign posters of Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Sistani despite the fact that Sistani refused to offer any individual endorsement. Whoever wins the battles for prime minister will have to convince the minority party that security and rule of law will prevail against sectarian loyalty. Most pre and post-election polls showed that these were the primary issues driving voter turnout. The results reflect that this trend toward compromise and pluralism was true for Shiites, Sunnis, and the Kurds.

To codify this move toward pragmatism, the new government must move quickly to pass a national oil sharing law, make the judiciary independent, and consolidate armed elements. Without such moves, the progress toward compromise and moderation would very likely be overcome, again, by sectarianism and violence.

In appearance, it looks as if the elections expressed the wishes of the Iraqi people irrespective of neighboring countries plans. Is that true? Or, would you say that Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the US, had in hand in shaping the results?

There is no doubt that outside actors played a role in framing issues and influencing blocs of voters. However, unlike previous post-Saddam elections, the electorate focused on national issues. New support for the more secular Shiite Alawi in the Sunni community must be interpreted as forward progress and a vote for less interference from Tehran. However farfetched, there are even rumors circulating around the country, that recognizing the need for a more nationalist approach, Washington, Tehran, Riyadh, and Damascus “informally” agreed that Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement was more capable of unifying the country. The question of whether the elections will truly reflect the wishes of the Iraqi people will be if in the winning coalition can effectively form a viable coalition in a timely manner without overwhelming political or violent dissent from outside or inside.

In general, would you say that “democracy” is taking roots in Iraq?

The 2010 Iraqi parliamentary elections were crucial for political development and reconciliation in the country. The campaigning and voting process experiences only minor irregularities. The 62 percent voter turnout is proof positive. All in all significant steps toward democracy were taken. We need to remind ourselves that free and fair elections do not make a democratic state. Such electoral exercises must be followed with an effective and legitimate public administration that acts on the wishes of its constituents. I am more optimistic now than before the elections.

Iyad Allawi seems to be the biggest winner, politically at least. Still, you think his chances to form the next government are not very big. Why?

Should Allawi obtain the largest number of votes, the Iraqi system does not guarantee that he can form a viable government. As we know, it took many months for the previous winner to organize a governing coalition. These interim months ushered in resurgent violence and division.

Now, despite the fact that the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission and International Observers have deemed the elections generally free and fair, President Talibani and Prime Minister Maliki are calling for a recount and investigation into allegations of fraud. Should these allegations prove groundless or not significant as expected; will they both support the election results? I am reasonably confident that they will indeed support an Allawi led government after receiving considerable concessions and pressure for inside and outside parties. Most Iraqi politicians do believe that Allawi is too damaged to recover leadership.

In the light of the elections results, do you believe Iraq could cope with Iran’s influence after the withdrawal of US troops?

I believe that Iran is weighing the consequences of further violence in Iraq. Such upheaval would stall the pullout of American troops and could prompt Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to provide more tangible support to the Sunnis and more secular Shiites. Iran’s overarching influence in Iraq would not be drastically diminished with an Allawi-led government. Whatever the final outcome, the margin of victory would be such that Shiah leaders would assume ministerial posts in any new government. Following the U.S. military drawdown, Tehran would remain the primary outside security player as well as Iraq’s leading trade partner.

The delegation of the European Parliament condemned what it called “fraud” and “cheating”. Would you care to comment?

Some members of the European Parliament cited instances of electoral fraud. Just as alarming, was that all the major parties attempted to influence voters through gift-giving – bribes by any other interpretation. The independent electoral commission has also said it is investigating about 2,000 complaints lodged by political entities, fewer than the number filed in last year’s provincial elections.

The consensus opinion from other international observers, the United Nations, and the independent Iraqi election commission is that there were no signs of large scale fraud or vote manipulation that would delegitimize the results. It is difficult to imagine how any one party could pervert the extremely robust electoral safeguards. That said, such reports should be scrupulously investigated. Unless new information comes to light, the results should be released and a new government formed by the winner.

James Prince served as an international election observer to the elections in Iraq and is president of the Democracy Council, an international NGO based in the United States.