In 2006 information was leaked about a secret Iranian plan called Qiyamah, translated as Judgement Day. It was a plan for retaliation after a US led coalition would attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran would immediately respond with missile attacks on US military bases and assets in the Middle East as well as on Gulf States and other US allies in the Middle East.
According to the plan Iran’s proxies in the Middle East would execute suicide operations targeting US and British interests in the area. The thinking at the time was that Iran’s retaliation strikes would lead to global chaos. The global chaos would create the environment in which the Mehdi could return. Listening to recent remarks from IRGC, and former IRGC, commanders the Mehdism (or Mahdism in Arabic speaking counrtries) Doctrine is still very much alive.
On March 4, an IRGC spokesman said: “If the US and Israel wipe out all our positions, we, the remaining loyalists to the Islamic Republic, according to the will of our martyred Imam, will not surrender. All of us will collectively go to the desert wilderness, recite the Dua Kumayl , and raise our hands in supplication so that Allah may hasten the appearance of the Imam of the Time. We are confident that Trump and Netanyahu will not be able to confront the Imam of the Time, because the Imam’s power is very great.”
The Mehdism Doctrine is still very strong within the Iranian leadership and IRGC, so seeing an attack on the Islamic Republic and the killing of the Supreme Leader fits in their end time paradigm. In Islamic eschatology the Yawm al-Qiyamah or The Day of Rising is part of the belief that the dead will rise before final judgement and as such it is also an acronym for Judgement day.
What is known about the operation plan “codename Judgement Day”” from 2006 is that it was focused on repelling a potential US attack on Iran. In 2006 the US had Iran encircled as it had military bases on Iran’s eastern and western borders. There was at time already some shadow war ongoing.
US forces from Shindand airbase in western Afghanistan were attacking targets inside Iran. A source reported around that time that he saw an AC-130 gunship taking off from Shindand and then fly into Iran and started firing at targets.
So, it was Qassem Soleiman, who, in coordination with then Minister of Intelligence Gholam Hossein Mohseni Eje’i, developed operation Judgement Day. The goal of the operation was to inflict so much pain on the US in the Middle East that it would abandon its attack on the Islamic Republic.
Operation Judgement Day has two legs. The first leg was the response by the IRGC Aerospace Force (IRGC-ASF) from inside Iran to fire ballistic missiles and drones on US targets in the Middle East. The second leg includes the activation of proxies and operational cells abroad to attack western targets, including in Europe, Canada and the US.
What would Iran’s escalation model be for Operation Judgement Day in 2006:
1) A missile strike directly targeting US bases in the Gulf states and Iraq, immediately after Iran’s nuclear installations were hit.
2) Followed by suicide operations in a number of Arab and Muslim countries against US embassies and consulates, military bases and also on US and British economic targets, which includes US and British companies and also oil installations run by companies from both countries.
3) A third step would be to mobilize IRGC Basij and Quds Force fighters and Iran’s Iraqi proxies to attack US and British forces in Iraq.
4) The next escalation would be Hizballah entering the fight by firing missiles and drones on military and economic targets.
5) If attacks on Iran would not stop Iran would fire a massive barrage of ballistic missiles on Israel and the IRGC-QF would activate more than 50 terrorist cells in Canada, Europe and the US to attack civil and industrial targets.
6) A last stage in the plan would use all of Iran’s WMD capabilities and would try to maximize civilian casualties in the West and Arab cities by exploding chemical, biological and dirty bombs.
Since 2006 many adjustments have been made to the plan. Iran has become a leading country in developing drones and ballistic missiles. It even developed a plan to transfer technology to its proxies so they could build their own missiles and drones.
Hamas, for instance got its technology for rockets and missiles from Iran, some was transferred through Hizballah operatives others through IRGC-QF specialists. It gave Hamas blueprints to build missiles from water pipes. These water pipes were part of a European Union financed project to develop Gaza’s water supply system.
One of the leaders of one of Iran’s Palestinian proxies, Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) secretary-general Ziyad al-Nakhaleh said “let the world know that our weapons are water pipes that the resistance engineers have turned into the rockets that you see.”
After the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in the 2015 it was Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who decided that Iran’s pursue of nuclear weapons could be toned down in return for the lifting of sanctions. According to a ruling from Khamenei at that time, Iran had developed accurate ballistic missiles and drones that could do the job. The development of Iran’s nuclear ambitions was getting too expensive as the sanctions were already crumbling Iran’s economy and the government’s budget. By 2015 Iran had already developed the capability to enrich uranium to weapons grade.
In recent years, Iran’s innovative approach to engineering, reverse engineering and espionage saw a fast growth in Iran’s ballistic missiles and especially drone inventory. Iran’s drones were a commodity that was needed by Russia in its “special military operation” against Ukraine. The Shahed-136 loitering drone was sold to Russia, and other countries including the US (LUCAS) which used the design of the Shahed-136 to build its own drones.
Russia improved its Shahed-136 (the Geran) with an anti-jamming module, which was shared with Iran, and currently creates a problem for air defenses in the Gulf States. The current IRGC operation against its opponents, Operation True Promise 4, has elements from Operation Qiyamah.
Many have questions why Esmail Qaani the commander of the IRGC-QF is not seen in public since February 28, the same can be said for the current IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya HQ, Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi? Wild speculations are circulating but all three know they are on a target list and are most likely in their operational bunkers. The Quds Force is responsible for the coordination and providing logistical support for proxies who are supposed to take part in the execution of operation True Promise 4.
Which elements of Operation Qiyamah can be traced in Operation True Promise 4? First there is clear difference and that seems to be that Iran, and it proxies, do no longer need to rely on suicide attacks to inflict damage. The current accuracy of ballistic missiles and drones has greatly improved, as well as the lethality of the warheads.
The trigger, by Hamas, of the 7 October 2023, operation into Israel has led to a serious weakening of multiple Iranian proxies including Hamas, Hizballah, the PIJ and the Houthis. The IRGC-QF which was putting pressure on Israel from Syria had to evacuate Syria after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, releasing pressure on Israel. It strongly weakened the Islamic Republic’s power posturing in the Middle East. The ‘Shiite Cresent’ was broken.
The main response in Operation True Promise 4 until now is that the IRGC-ASF shoots drones and ballistic missiles on US targets in the Middle East and Israeli targets. Most of the US targets were in the first days military bases, but that changed fast. The IRGC is now targeting US embassies, US companies and even hotels where it presumes US soldiers stay.
The IRGC has also decided to attack infrastructures that are used to transfer oil from Azerbaijan to Israel. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline end terminal in Ceyhan, Turkiye, was targeted by a ballistic missile, which was shot down. The IRGC has decided that what it decides is an US or Israeli target in a third country makes that third country allegeable for the IRGC’s anger.
As such the IRGC has been striking targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Syria, Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Greece. There have also been reports that there were attacks in Georgia. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Many targets in the Gulf Countries are economic and civil targets. The Islamic Republic tries to imitate the Israeli targeted killings of high officials in mainly Tehran, with its drone attacks on apartment building and hotels, but nothing proves it is based on airtight evidence, and is highly speculative. It lead UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to say that “the UAE is in a time of war.’ There is also a clear message from Saudi Arabia to Tehran: if you attack one of our important oil fields again, we will take out Iran’s oil terminals at Kharg Island.
All the countries attacked are basically in line with the Qiyamah plan from the mid 2000s. As a last resort the IRGC will try to cause global chaos. Wit all seeming to be lost IRGC hardliners and clerics might choose ‘martyrdom’ instead of surrender, as they will seek to hasten the apocalyptic end-time battle.
A few days ago, an IRGC commander said “If (the) US and Israel pursue a ‘regime change’ scenario in practice, our final effective missiles will target (the) Dimona nuclear reactor and all regional energy infrastructure. This is a scenario we have already prepared for.” For hardliners in the Islamic Republic the choice is already made ‘scorched earth’ and bringing chaos to the Middle East will lead in their opinion to the coming of the Hidden Iman, the Mehdi.
* Ronald Sandee (@rsandee70) is a former Dutch govt counter-terrorism analyst. Co-founder of Blue Water Intelligence.
هذه أول مرة أسمع عن « دعاء كُميل » عند الشيعة. ما قرأته منه بدا لي أنه يشبه ما يُسمى « فِعل الندامة » عند المسيحيين. هل يفيدنا ااحد القراء عن أصل هذا الدعاء واصل الإسم الغريب (كميل) بالعربية