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The world is undergoing a major redistribution of power, reminiscent of the 1945 Yalta Conference. At that time, Europe was divided into Soviet and Western spheres of influence. Today, events such as Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, the uncertain course of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the sudden “revolution” in Syria that brought an Islamist group to power indicate a quiet redefinition of global concepts.
History has a strange way of repeating itself—but this time, the figures at the table are not Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin. Instead, we see Trump, Putin, and (though with a lower profile) Erdoğan. Meanwhile, Netanyahu lingers on the sidelines, ensuring that Israel remains in the picture. What we are witnessing is a new “Yalta” or a process of global restructuring.
The world is experiencing the birth pains of a new global order. The Cold War paradigm that emerged from the 1945 Yalta Conference has long been a defining force in global politics and the military-industrial complex. Since the Cold War ended, however, the global system has been searching for a new direction.
Now, a new approach is emerging—one that aims to end the militaristic order. In the U.S., economic forces pushing for a transition from a war-driven economy to one focused on domestic growth and production are gaining influence. Instead of the arms industry, investment-driven models are being encouraged.
Within this context, world politics is entering a phase akin to a new Yalta or global restructuring.
The Key Principles of the New Global Order
1. The End of the War Economy & Reduction of Defense Budgets
• Since 1945, military conflicts and defense spending have remained at the heart of economic structures.
• In the new model, conflicts will be resolved through diplomacy and economic agreements rather than military means.
• Defense budgets will shrink, with resources redirected toward investment and production.
2. Respect for Borders
• Territorial integrity will be a fundamental principle of the new global system.
• Internal conflicts and separatist movements will no longer be supported.
3. Respect for Elected Governments, No More Regionalism
• Global powers will recognize democratically elected governments as long as they meet minimum human rights standards.
• Instead of fueling regional separatism, the focus will be on internal stability within nations.
4. The Strategy to Weaken Iran from Within Will Continue
• Iran will remain one of the most sensitive issues in the new global order.
• However, military interventions will be replaced by economic and political strategies to weaken the regime.
5. The Main Rival: China – But the Battle Will Be Economic, Not Military
• China is seen as the biggest competitor in global geopolitics.
• This competition will be fought through science, technology, and business rather than military conflicts.
• Artificial intelligence, advanced technology, and new production systems will be the West’s greatest weapons against China.
The Implementation of the New Yalta: Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine & NATO
The principles of this new global framework have already begun to take shape in various geopolitical crises. The U.S. decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and to engage not only with moderate Islam but also with radical Islamist factions—so long as they adhere to certain humanitarian standards—was an early sign. The next testing ground was Syria.
1. Syria: Turkey’s Victory, Russia’s Exit & the U.S.’s New Strategy
The fall of Assad and the rise of HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) in Syria was no coincidence—it was the first major test of the new global order (arranged by US, implemented by Turkey):
• Turkey became the first country to recognize the new Syrian government and appoint an ambassador.
• Russia chose to withdraw its support for Assad rather than confront the new reality.
• The U.S. and Israel backed the new government to curb Iran’s influence.
• The Kurdish issue in Syria was resolved not through autonomy, but through an integration model.
Ultimately, Turkey’s long-standing advocacy for Syria’s territorial integrity was validated.
2. Ukraine: An Honorable Exit for Russia?
• Russia has reached a stalemate in Ukraine.
• The U.S. seems willing to let Russia find an “advantageous” way out, ensuring a geopolitical balance in the region.
• This approach allows the West to refocus on a more critical target: China’s economic expansion.
3. NATO: A New Balance, A New Identity Crisis
• The Trump administration has made it clear that NATO can no longer serve as a “free security insurance” for Europe.
• European nations are now being forced to take charge of their own defense.
• Meanwhile, Turkey is leveraging its position within NATO to balance its relations with both Russia and the West.
Turkey’s Position in the New Global Order
Turkey has emerged as one of the biggest winners in this global restructuring process:
• It has shaped the new Syrian order in its favor.
• It has strengthened its position within NATO.
• It has built a pragmatic balance with Russia.
• It has enhanced its bargaining power with the U.S. and the EU.
However, in order to sustain these gains, strategic actions must be taken:
1. Strengthening diplomatic and military cooperation with Syria’s new government.
2. Using its success in Syria as leverage in NATO and EU negotiations.
3. Establishing a new balance with Russia to solidify Turkey’s leadership role in the region.
4. Carefully managing relations with China to gain an advantage in global trade competition.
Decoding the New Yalta
1. A shift from a war economy to an investment and production-based model.
2. A transition from military conflicts to diplomacy and economic agreements.
3. Strategic competition with China through science and technology rather than military confrontation.
4. The strengthening of Turkey as a rising regional power.
The Big Question: Turkey’s Role in the New System
In 1945, Turkey was absent from the discussions at Yalta.
In 2025, Turkey is now a key player in global power struggles.
But the real question remains:
Will Turkey merely be a participant in this new system, or will it be one of the forces shaping its rules?
Of course, speculation abounds. Some believe the current global transformation is nothing more than an attempt to dismantle the war economy by a real estate mogul (Trump). Others argue that Trump is simply a tool of American capitalists who want to reindustrialize the U.S.
Some claim that the real war is between the oil and arms lobbies versus the industrial and technology sectors—a battle over who controls the corporate structure of the new world order.
And let’s not forget: Trump survived an assassination attempt during his campaign. Could he still be a target?
Where does Turkey’s “latest opening”, Abdullah Öcalan’s call for laying down arms and disbanding the PKK fit in?
Is all of this merely the growing pains of a shifting system, or is it a calculated effort by global powers to redefine balance?