In a significant shift of tone, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman took a harder stance on Israel at the extraordinary conference of Muslim and Arab countries in Riyadh, accusing the Jewish state of committing genocide in Gaza and launching attacks on Lebanon. In a striking contrast, he softened his rhetoric towards Saudi Arabia’s longtime adversary, Iran, calling for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic to be respected and its territories not to be violated.

This dramatic shift in policy comes shortly after a reported conversation between the Crown Prince and President-elect Donald Trump, just days ago. While the details of their conversation remain unclear, speculation suggests that the Crown Prince may have anticipated an unrestrained Israeli military campaign in Gaza and Lebanon, potentially even targeting Iranian nuclear sites or other strategic infrastructure.

It’s possible that these recent statements are a calculated move by the Crown Prince to distance himself from Israel, with whom he was reportedly involved in secret talks under the Biden administration. This may also be an attempt to distance himself from the U.S. as the Saudi leader navigates a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. The upcoming military action against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which find themselves abandoned by their former backers—Qatar, Egypt, and Iran—could be the catalyst for these unusual public statements.

Saudi Arabia, especially under the leadership of King Salman, has long positioned itself as the custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites in Mecca and Medina. This means the Kingdom is acutely aware of its responsibility to the broader Muslim world, especially when it comes to the holy city of Jerusalem. For this reason, the Crown Prince is wary of being seen as supporting an aggressive Israeli stance, particularly in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia is keen to preserve its fragile détente with Iran, which was brokered by China in 2023. Given the unresolved conflict in Yemen and Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities, Saudi Arabia has little incentive to destabilize the balance of power in the Gulf.

Viewed through this lens, the Crown Prince’s statements could be a diplomatic maneuver designed to maintain the Kingdom’s regional positioning without directly opposing Israel’s actions or U.S. policy. His rhetoric may also signal a show of solidarity with Muslims worldwide, while sending a message of positive neutrality toward Iran.

Only time will reveal whether these remarks are part of a larger, more complex strategy—potentially covering up darker scenarios—or if they are sincere expressions of support for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Lebanon and a diplomatic overture to Tehran.

I tend to believe that this ‘Prince’ has read ‘Machiavelli’ (…no pun intended…)