The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Co-chairman Asif Zardari, who has risen to the highest rung of the country’s political ladder by winning the presidential election with a thumping majority, is likely to face some hard challenges ahead, ranging from his personal credibility crisis to militancy related terrorism as well as grave economic crisis which presently afflict the post-Musharraf Pakistan.
The September 6, 2008 presidential election was Pakistan’s second presidential poll in 11 months, following a controversial October 6 election of then Musharraf for a so-called second term that became the cause of a still-continuing judicial crisis after he sacked many superior court judges under his extra-constitutional November 3, 2008 emergency, to avoid a legal challenge to his candidacy in uniform. Zardari overcame a storm of criticism at home and abroad over unproven allegations of corruption and dishonoured pledges for restoration of the judges sacked by former President Musharraf to earn the office, one of whose occupants, his own party’s Farooq Leghari, got him arrested while sacking Benazir Bhutto’s second short-lived government in 1996. Musharraf too let the prisoner complete about nine years in jail while being tried for never-proven corruption charges before allowing him out on bail in 2005.
Regarded as a polo-playing playboy in his youth, the catalyst for Zardari’s rise was the December 27 assassination of his wife Benazir Bhutto, following which he became the Co-chairman. Zardari – who earned the moniker “Mr. 10%” for allegedly demanding kickbacks during his wife’s two prime ministerial terms – has long been dogged by accusations of corruption. On the other hand, Zardari often compares himself to Jesus (an innocent accused of crimes he did not commit) although he is considered one of the most controversial and equally mistrusted figures in the long parade of horribles that make up the political history of Pakistan.
As Ms Bhutto’s husband, Zardari used to live in the shadow of his wife when she was alive and proved to be a weak link in her political armour, because of his having been repeatedly charged with corruption. He was thrust into the centre stage after Bhutto’s assassination. Many doubted his ability to lead the country’s largest political party because of his blotched past and his being a non-Bhutto. There are even those who said it marked the beginning of the end for the PPP. After the PPP’s success in the general elections, Zardari engineered a coalition government that included his party’s historical rival, the PML-N of former Prime Minster Nawaz Sharif.
Soon afterwards, Zardari played a Machiavellian game in which he worked with Sharif to force President Musharraf to resign, rather than risk being impeached. But hardly a few days after Musharraf’s ouster, Zardari locked horns with Sharif, refusing to fulfill his pledges to restore judges sacked by Musharraf or to reduce the powers of the president. In fact Zardari announced that he himself would stand for president, rather than support Sharif’s option of supporting a non-partisan person for the post. As a result, Sharif opted to leave the coalition and field his own presidential candidate.
Although Zardari had been facing intense criticism for his controversial decision to run for the presidency while simultaneously retaining the leadership of the PPP, he was successful in securing a little more than two-thirds majority of a 1,170-member, but 702-vote, Electoral College of the two houses of parliament and four provincial assemblies in the presidential election which marks Pakistan’s transition to full civilian democracy after nine years of a military-led regime.
Having decided to run for the office of the president by dumping his former ally Nawaz Sharif, Zardari demonstrated extraordinary political skills in managing enough parliamentary support for his presidential election even from some of staunch Musharraf loyalists like the Altaf Hussain-led MQM and the PML-Q. Yet, the PPP leader had to face a clear defeat in Punjab at the hands of the Sharif-backed Justice Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui who obtained 201 votes against Zardari’s tally of 123. The Sharif party had emerged as the second largest party in the 2008 general elections with 92 members in the National Assembly, compared to PPP’s 124, but the largest in the Punjab Assembly – the only provincial assembly where Zardari could not manage a majority, thus shattering the PPP’s much-trumpeted dream to topple the PML-N government in Punjab after the presidential election.
Many of the political analysts believe that the presidency, which is now the most powerful political office in the country, would hardly be a comfortable crown for Zardari. According to a leading writer and analyst Ayaz Ameer, there are fears that his rule would mark a new phase of instability in Pakistan if he does not clean his tainted image which has been further tarnished by his repeated betrayal of coalition partners and backtracking on promises. “The Machiavellian moves he has made since his party returned to power after the general elections have already turned him into the most controversial politician of the country. Thus, if his ascendancy to the coveted position begins with a sort of trust-deficit, he is himself to blame”, he added.
What vision is Zardari bringing to the country? What is it that the man stands for? To what ends does he wish to acquire power? These are the questions the general public in Pakistan is asking in the backdrop of Zardari’s election as the 12th president of the country. Ahsan Iqbal, the central secretary information of the Sharif-led PML, says the so-called transition to democracy after Zardari’s election is still being viewed with disbelief, which is not without a rationale. “Stepping into Musharraf’s shoes is one whose politicking over the last five months is replete with broken promises and who seems determined to uphold the legacy of the most repressive dictatorship this beleaguered country has ever witnessed”. Therefore, Ahsan said, Zardari’s presidency would remain a divisive factor in the Pakistani politics until its controversial powers such as to dissolve the National Assembly, sack a prime minister and appoint armed forces’ chief, provincial governors and the chief election commissioner, are clipped and he is able to restore his shattered credibility, which is hardly helped by a gradual reinstatement of the deposed judges of the superior courts, which is being seen as insulting and aimed at undermining the institution of judiciary, like General Musharraf did.
According to analyst Ahmed Rashid, the author of the “Taliban”, Zardari’s past mischief and the fact that he has never held political office are the main concerns of most Pakistanis. “However, his presidency could determine nothing less than the future of his nuclear-armed state and the West’s war on terror. Pakistan has, since the 9/11 attacks, become home to Al-Qaeda’s leadership and a gathering point for Taliban, who continue to challenge the NATO forces in Afghanistan. The new president’s resolve will not only be tested by how he tackles these threats but also by the growing problem of Pakistan’s own extremists. The greatest fear for many is that if the civilian government becomes weaker and more discredited in the eyes of the public with Zardari’s induction as the president, it could be toppled by Islamists. “If Zardari succeeds in tackling even some of Pakistan’s problems, his chequered past might be forgiven, but if he does not, his opponents in the army may bring down the curtain on civilian rule”, he added.
However, analyst Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi, the author of “The role of military in Pakistan politics”, says the immediate challenge for Zardari would be addressing the growing American concerns that some sections of the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment are covertly supporting the cross border militancy in Afghanistan. “Another daunting challenge will be maintaining cordial relations with the military top brass by acting as a channel between the military and the political government and coordinating the imperatives of political and popular governance with the professional and corporate interests of the military. The military top brass will closely monitor how the new civilian president functions. Therefore, President Zardari has to balance pressure from at least five quarters – the political class, his party and the government, provincial interests, the military as well as the international community. These are formidable challenges, and the new president is expected to help the government cope with them”, Askari added.
Analysts say as things stand, Pakistan is sorely troubled and desperately in need of a healing president, who can stem the bloodshed, heal the wounds and soothe the savage beast. This need not be a charismatic figure — indeed it may be better were it not — but above all must come carrying an olive branch not a sword and be a figure that has the confidence of the people and the probity of an honest man. Anything less and Pakistan runs the risk of moving swiftly into the abyss – a civilian dictatorship. Zardari also has the chance to prove his critics wrong, who see his going into the presidency as full of risks. Many say that the man will have to change himself altogether to secure the future of democracy. “Miracles do happen and people do change. Why can’t Asif Zardari? If divine warnings do come why can’t the divine correction”, commented a senior political analyst Ansar Abbasi.
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Lahore