London: As Pakistan inches painstakingly on to complete its sixtieth year of existence the prospects of its future survival remain shrouded under a dark cloud of uncertainty. Despite Islamabad ‘s trying, its mentors in Washington seem to be getting at the end of their patience.
They have made it clear categorically now as never before, that the services provided are not in commensurate with the US dollars and arms that Islamabad has been receiving. Unlike the previous visitations from Washington, the most recent visit of American Vice President Dick Cheney to Islamabad was not meant to pat the back.
After the event—i.e. Dick Cheney’s visit and a Taliban attack on him at Bagram base in Afghanistan that he escaped unscathed—is being described by some cynics in Pakistan who see ISI rat in everything untoward happening under the sun—as a quick retaliation for all the humiliation meted out to their boss during American Vice President’s visit. I do not have any means to confirm or deny these observations. I do not also subscribe entirely to the allegation that ISI has a hand everything foul. However, I share the view of many experts that ISI is as professional as CIA and Mossad and effective too. It can pull out a trick or two on any occasion to counter effectively any move that questions its ability or the prowess of its boss. I would not share the notion that it nodded to its strings based in Bagram to take a pot shot at the Vice President to convey to him the message that Afghanistan is much too serious an affair to be handled his rough way and that Pakistan continues to hold the key to the problem.
However, having known that his visit was to deliver what was widely believed to be a warning that the new Democratic Congress could cut aid unless Pakistan became more aggressive in hunting down Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives and that he would play roughshod and would demand more from Pakistan, the ISI had done its home work. The instantaneous capturing of Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, deputy to the elusive Taliban chief, Mullah Mohammad Omar, from Quetta and Taliban Defence Minister, coinciding with the visit of Mr Cheney—seems to be a trick like that of a magician who pulls a rabbit out of his hat at will. The Taliban leader carried a $1 million reward and is the most senior Taliban figure captured since the American invasion of Afghanistan in November 2001. There is an orchestrated message from American officials, Senators and rulers in Afghanistan that Pakistan is not doing enough and needs to do more.
Islamabad, however, wants people to believe that the arrest of Mullah Obaidullah had no link with Mr Cheney’s visit and the action which led to his arrest had been planned in advance based on good intelligence. Mullah Obaidullah’s “timely arrest” is a feather in Pakistan’s cap especially when Washington has been showing its desperation and is sort of scared by reports that the Taliban are preparing for a `spring offensive’ in Afghanistan. (The ‘spring offensive’ reminds the Americans of the ‘Tet offensive’ of the Vietnam war that signalled their defeat). There is already a dramatic upsurge in violence over last year. Mullah Obaidullah was on America’s most wanted list and was a member of the 10-man Taliban Leadership Council announced by the Taliban supreme leader in June 2003.
Obviously, Islamabad’s rush to show quick results is a direct consequence of the tightening of the screws. There are reports that the Americans who were already getting profoundly wary of Islamabad’s continuous running with the American hare and hunting with the Taliban hounds, have reached a point where they have started looking for replacements. There is also growing realisation in Washington that since Pakistan is the epicentre of global terrorism, it shall have to look beyond the Pakistan military to combat it effectively. Despite GPM’s assertions to the contrary, Quetta remains the stronghold of Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
Washington believes that there is no doubt that while Pakistani military is essential for countering terrorism, its dubious role as part of the problem of terrorism has got be terminated. And that– its experts think– can only be possible by restoring a genuine and formidable democratic government that could not only ensure and guarantee full autonomy to the provinces but also have a firm hold on the military and ISI.
In an assessment Foreign Editor of the Times, London, Bronwen Maddox (February 20, 2007) under the caption: “Once-unthinkable deal might be Musharraf’s only option” wrote: “The next ten months may be the most difficult that President Musharraf has faced in his eight turbulent years running Pakistan.” She has advised him to distance himself from religious and conservative parties now and crack down on the militants who lurk behind them. Commenting on the rumours (firmly denied by PPP) that: “In his attempt to stay in power, as well to revive his quest for a modern Pakistan, he is contemplating the once unthinkable: doing a deal with Benazir Bhutto and her party to keep the fundamentalists at bay.”
Maddox wants Pakistan to learn a lesson from India’s discovery of rapid economic growth. Surely one would agree with her that Indian economic growth is a reward for its stability besides of course continuous democracy, rule of law, independent judiciary, and sanctity of free and transparent vote and apolitical military institution. Indeed, like India, Pakistan too can seek rewards of stability by establishing genuine democracy. To get to this goal it shall have to be seen that GPM stops pandering to those causes that encourage violence as a means and make room for the return of unadulterated democracy.
Maddox believes that both short and long term objectives of the General can be assured– of being re-elected as President by Parliament; and to win support for what he calls his plans to modernise Pakistan’s education and social systems. “The small religious parties and the mainstream, conservative Pakistan Muslim League have blocked his plans to reform the madrassas, or religious schools, one of the key requests of the US and Britain.” However, Maddox feels that Musharraf’s first goal is tricky, given the challenges to his legitimacy. Since he took power in the 1999 coup, he has refused to stand down as head of the army while continuing as president.
Under the 1973 Constitution amended by him with the help of MMA to twist and turn it according to his ambitions, the president is elected by Parliament. Musharraf thinks that he could ask this Parliament simply to re-nominate him — “but that would lack the appearance of legitimacy, and the suggestion has provoked derision.” Constitutional experts are of the view that a parliament that has a five-year life cannot legally elect a president for ten years. It would be immoral, illegal and ultra virus of all constitutional laws. Maddox believes that if he turns to the next Parliament to re-elect him, he is not confident that it would. According to Maddox : “He might try both: get nodded in again by this assembly, and ask for endorsement from the next — but that could still give him an embarrassing rebuff.”
How to get out of this Catch-22 dilemma? Maddox considers Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister, as the key to the riddle. “She is head of one of the two mainstream political parties that is expected to do well in the elections. It embraces a secular, liberal agenda.” Violence and the looming elections have “left choice between the militants and the liberals. The US would like him to understand that he does not really have a choice at all.”
Besides Maddox other experts on South Asian politics share the American view as well and agree that Benazir Bhutto—as James Astill of London Economist late last year described her–is the only national leader who can rally people of Pakistan under her flag. The General needs to be told that while he has been trotting all over the Muslim countries seeking them to unite, he should start the charity from home. Pakistan–more than any one– needs national unity and a government of national consensus that could ultimately usher in a democratic order under a strong leadership enjoying the confidence of the people to save the country from military’s colossal failures.
w.hasan@virgin.net
* Wajid Shamsul Hasan is Pakistan’s Ex High Commissioner at the UK