Why does ‘The Newsweek’ have to carry a major story on the next chief of Pakistani Army, many a senior statesman or Junta leaders from the third world would envy for such a recognition?
An unwritten preamble for continued strategic relationships between western geo strategists and Pakistan Army is grounded on continued dialogue on security affairs in the North where Al Qaida is holed in. In this milieu an Islamic nuclear country facing renewed intensity of suicide attacks by the Al Qaida militants, a strong, effective, smart, tough, talented commander—and pro-Western leaning chief is a must for the western strategists. The interest in the overall leadership of the largest army within the Islamic arc of crescent is intense which happen to be the closest ally of the west on its war on terror efforts and safe keeper of the large strategic assets.
As Election Commission of Pakistan has announced October 6th for Presidential Elections, and General Pervez Musharraf has showed his consent in shedding the uniform right after the elections, rumors are strife about who is going to succeed him as next Chief Of Army Staff (COAS). The News reports that six Major Generals are promoted to the rank of Lieutenant General. Amongst them Major General Mohsin Kamal has been posted as Corp Commander Rawalpindi (replacing Lt. General Tariq Majeed) and Major General Nadeem Taj made DG ISI (replacing Lt. General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani). General Majeed and General Kiani are main contestants for the hot seat. I think General Kiani will become COAS while General Majeed will be the VCOAS. That is, one Pervez will replace another Pervez.
The Newsweek in its latest edition writes that ‘Kiyani is a chain smoker with a tendency to mumble, but he speaks to Musharraf in a way few other senior officers would dare. Western military officials say he told the president he would accept nothing less than the top job in the Army—and Musharraf dreads giving up that post, knowing it is the source of much of his authority.General Majeed and General Kiani both are known as hardcore Musharraf loyalists, as well as hard-line professional soldiers. They are from the Baloch Regiment and had earlier headed the Military Intelligence (MI) in different times, one after the other.’
Pakistani Presidential candidate Gen Pervez Musharraf will probably doff the uniform after re-election latest by 15th Nov, the focus of global military strategists is on who would assume charge of the most powerful and the critical post in Pakistan’s fragile political scenario. Pakistan Army is considered as bulwark of stability and safe keeper of the strategic assets of the country. One of the silent secret amongst major powers to allow a ‘Nuclear Pakistan’ is the discipline and professionalism of the Pakistani Army. The issue remains hushed and tolerable to the western powers as far as the Army chief is a moderate and a calm head.
The country has a history of coups to remove civilian leaders from the power and replace them by the men in the top army post. Before the 1999 coup by General Musharraf, there had been three more coups led by Field Marshal Ayub Khan, General Yayha Khan and General Zia-ul-Haq in Pakistan, with the country seeing a rule by the army generals for more than 32 years in its 60 years of existence.
According to latest reports of The Newsweek..
Pervez Musharraf could hardly be flattered to think why some people are so eager for him to win Pakistan’s Oct. 6 presidential vote. It’s because he’ll have to step down as armed forces chief before he’s sworn in—as he promised just before the Supreme Court decided last week to let him run again. The general must know how desperately Pakistan’s military needs a full-time commander, especially after he’s spent months too busy fighting for his political life to give the job his proper attention. So Musharraf is widely believed to have chosen a successor at last: Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the former director general of the military’s powerful spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Although Kiyani has always kept a low public profile, people who have worked closely with him speak highly of his abilities—more highly in some cases than his boss might like. “Kiyani is not only a strong commander,” says a Western military official in Islamabad, asking not to be named on such a delicate topic. “He’s the most competent candidate by far.”
Those who know Kiyani say he’s a smart, tough, talented commander—and pro-Western, in the bargain. The son of an Army NCO, he climbed rapidly through military ranks. In 2003, when members of the armed forces were implicated in two assassination attempts against Musharraf, the president put Kiyani in charge of the investigation—and applauded the way he got the country’s rival intelligence services working together for a change. “When Kiyani got tough, the problems of coordination disappeared and the agencies started working like a well-oiled machine,” Musharraf recalls in his memoir, “In the Line of Fire.” Within months Kiyani had unraveled the two plots and arrested most of the participants. He was rewarded in 2004 with a promotion to chief of ISI, and the next year his agency scored big with the arrest of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the senior Qaeda lieutenant who masterminded the attempts on Musharraf’s life. A former U.S. intelligence official who dealt personally with Kiyani says the ISI “took a lot of bad guys down” under his leadership. Kiyani has earned his boss’s confidence, even serving as Musharraf’s personal envoy in recent talks with exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.
Out of the 12 corps commanders, Amir Mir (former editor of Weekly Independent, currently affiliated with Gulf News and the Spanish News Agency EFE as its Pakistan incharge) lists his suspects as:
•Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai: Although the Director-General of the Strategic Plans Division tops the seniority list, he is already on extension and is not likely to be considered for the post of the VCOAS. However, due to his deep involvement with the military’s strategic nuclear assets, he may become the CJCSC.
•Lieutenant General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani: Director General of the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is more likely to become the new VCOAS and prospective successor of Musharraf due to number of reasons. He is close confidant of Musharraf and is the first DG ISI in history of Pakistan to openly interact in a political situation, while negotiating the power sharing deal with Benazir Bhutto for his boss. He was the deputy military secretary of Benazir Bhutto during her first premiership tenure.
•Lieutenant General Tariq Majeed: Commander of most influential 10 corps, General Majeed is next line of General Kiani.
•Lieutenant General Salahuddin Satti: Incase General Musharraf going to repeat the mistake made by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq and Nawaz Sharif to prefer “loyalty” on seniority, General Satti, the Chief of General Staff, who ranks number 12 on the seniority list may be selected as the VCOAS.
The Glass House shared a report by Amir Mir about prospective reorganization of command and control structure of the Pakistan Army by General Musharraf in order to decentralize the power nexus. In the proposed setup three regional commands, North, South and Central, headed by three lieutenant generals, will be established and existing nine corps will fall under these new command centers, with each command having three corps under it.
While the Central Command of the army will be headquartered in Rawalpindi, the Southern Command will have its headquarters in Quetta and the Northern Command is most likely to be based either in Gujranwala or Mangla. Analysts at ‘The Tribune Chandigarh, India’ point out that the race for the top post has been on for some time now after it became clear that President Musharraf will have to step down as the Chief of Army Staff. While two of his most trusted lieutenants are due for retirement in early October, there are three more of his trusted Generals in the hierarchy who are in the race for the post.
President Musharraf is expected to take oath of office by November 15 as civilian President and it would be just before that that he will quit as the army chief.
Presently, Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat, who is also the vice-chief of army staff, is the senior most in the hierarchy followed by Gen Ehsan-ul-Haq. General Hayat, a Rajput Muslim and General Haq, an urbane officer with moderate religious beliefs are two key members of General Musharraf’s kitchen cabinet and who reached their present positions after superseding seven and six three-star officers, respectively.
They are both firm General Musharraf loyalists with General Hayat also surviving an assassination attempt in 2004 when he was the corps commander in Karachi. However, both of them retire from service on October 8. Prior to making a decision for future COAS, Musharraf has to appoint two new four-star generals to fill the positions of Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), currently occupied by General Ahsan Salim Hayat and General Ehsanul Haq respectively. VCOAS is more critical of the two posts as the new VCOAS will automatically become COAS the moment Musharrf sheds his uniform.
It is after this that the race really opens up and the next three in the Pakistan army’s hierarchy come into focus for the post of the Chief of Army Staff. However, of the three, two really are the favourites with the third having an outside chance of emerging as the real confidant of President Musharraf.
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